Armidale Regional CouncilEconomic profile
Skip to content

Armidale Regional Council

Shift-share analysis

In Armidale Regional Council, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2010/11 and 2015/16 was experienced in Other Services.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

Did you know? By clicking/tapping on a data row in the table you will be able to see sub categories.
Shift-share analysis to New South Wales
Armidale Regional Council - Employment (Total)2015/162010/112010/11 to 2015/16
Industry
(Click rows to view sub-categories)
NumberNumberChangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing1,3201,470-150+114.3-51.6-212.6
Mining6063-2+4.9+1.3-8.3
Manufacturing420422-1+32.8-36.4+2.1
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services131132-1+10.3+0.6-11.5
Construction8261,049-223+81.6-1.6-303.1
Wholesale Trade335362-27+28.2-5.3-50.2
Retail Trade1,4681,616-148+125.6+0.8-274.5
Accommodation and Food Services1,0211,088-67+84.6+28.2-179.8
Transport, Postal and Warehousing298314-17+24.5-2.8-38.4
Information Media and Telecommunications132141-10+11.0+0.1-20.7
Financial and Insurance Services313331-18+25.8+1.3-44.6
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services162161+1+12.6+0.1-11.4
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services660741-80+57.6+13.2-151.2
Administrative and Support Services317327-10+25.4+6.8-42.1
Public Administration and Safety696759-63+59.0+2.5-124.3
Education and Training2,7592,822-63+219.4+51.0-333.3
Health Care and Social Assistance1,6101,643-33+127.7+36.9-197.3
Arts and Recreation Services150148+2+11.5+4.1-13.6
Other Services547536+11+41.7+4.2-35.0

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id , the population experts.

Data is based on 2014-15 constant prices for all years. NIEIR data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and new data releases normally adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.

Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2010/11 to 2015/16
Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2010/11 to 2015/16 Net change in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: -212.6 Net change in Mining, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: -8.3 Net change in Manufacturing, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: 2.1 Net change in Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: -11.5 Net change in Construction, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: -303.1 Net change in Wholesale Trade, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: -50.2 Net change in Retail Trade, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: -274.5 Net change in Accommodation and Food Services, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: -179.8 Net change in Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: -38.4 Net change in Information Media and Telecommunications, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: -20.7 Net change in Financial and Insurance Services, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: -44.6 Net change in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: -11.4 Net change in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: -151.2 Net change in Administrative and Support Services, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: -42.1 Net change in Public Administration and Safety, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: -124.3 Net change in Education and Training, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: -333.3 Net change in Health Care and Social Assistance, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: -197.3 Net change in Arts and Recreation Services, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: -13.6 Net change in Other Services, Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales: -35.0
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016
Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts

Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2010/11 and 2015/16 in Armidale Regional Council in 2015/16 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in Armidale Regional Council relative to New South Wales were:

  • Manufacturing (+2.1)
  • Mining (-8.3)
  • Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services (-11.4)

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Education and Training (-333.3)
  • Construction (-303.1)
  • Retail Trade (-274.5)

v17.09.14-1.0.1