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Bankstown City

Economic impact model

Economic impact modelling enables Bankstown City to explore how change in employment or output(sales) in one sector of the local economy will impact on all other sectors of the economy, by modelling the flow-on effects across different industries.

This provides Bankstown City with powerful evidence to advocate against industrial closures or strategically target new industry sectors which are likely to have the greatest positive economic impact.

Different industries will have different flow on effects. Adding jobs in a particular sector will not only add to the value of that sector, but also to other industries related to the supply chain (eg. suppliers, wholesalers) and service industries (retail, food services, administration) which will expand to service the additional workforce. Jobs in associated industries may be added in the local area or outside it, based on journey to work information.

The economic impacts are calculated using an input-output model which is derived from the local economy microsimulation model by National Economics (NIEIR).

To use the model, simply input the number of jobs (per year) to be added to (+) or removed (-) from the economy in a particular industry sector. The results show the theoretical addition (or loss) to the local economy of jobs and value-added by industry sector. It also shows the proportion of the new employment that would occur inside and outside Bankstown City.

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

Industry: Retail Trade

Impact modeled: ADDITION of $10.0 million sales

Company name:

Impact Summary
Bankstown City - Modelling the effect of adding $10.0m sales in Retail Trade - Inflation adjusted
SummaryOutput ($m)Value-added ($m)Local jobsResidents jobs
Starting position Bankstown City (year ended June 2015)--------
Retail Trade746.51461.887,2249,423
All industries16,545.567,905.4677,19682,056
Impacts on Bankstown City economy--------
Direct impact on Retail Trade sector10.006.1997--
Industrial impact1.660.817--
Consumption impact0.910.525--
Total impact on Bankstown City economy12.577.5210948
Type 1 multiplier (direct & industrial)1.171.131.07--
Type 2 multiplier (direct, industrial & consumption)1.261.221.12--
Impact on Australian economy--------
Total impact outside Bankstown City13.246.5549108
Total impact on Australian economy25.8114.07158156

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id , the population experts.

Note: All $ values are expressed in 2013-14 base year dollar terms.

Impact on Output

The direct addition of $10.0 million annual output in the Retail Trade sector of Bankstown City economy would lead to an increase in indirect demand for intermediate goods and services across related industry sectors. These indirect industrial impacts (Type 1) are estimated to be an additional $1.66m in Output, representing a Type 1 Output multiplier of 1.17.

There would be an additional contribution to Bankstown City economy through consumption effects as correspondingly more wages and salaries are spent in the local economy. It is estimated that this would result in a further increase in Output of $0.91m .

The combination of all direct, industrial and consumption effects would result in total estimated rise in Output of $12.57m in Bankstown City economy, representing a Type 2 Output multiplier of 1.26.

These impacts would not be limited to the local economy. Industrial and consumption effects would flow outside the region to the wider Australian economy to the tune of $13.24m in Output.

The combined effect of economic multipliers in Bankstown City and the wider Australian economy is estimated to be $25.81m added to Australia’s Output.

Impact on Local Employment (jobs)

The direct addition of $10.0 million annual output in the Retail Trade sector of Bankstown City economy is estimated to lead to a corresponding direct addition of 97 jobs in the local Retail Trade sector. From this direct expansion in the economy it is anticipated that there would be flow on effects into other related intermediate industries, creating an additional 7 jobs. This represents a Type 1 Employment multiplier of 1.07.

This addition of jobs in the local economy would lead to a corresponding increase in wages and salaries, a proportion of which would be spent on local goods and services, creating a further 5 jobs through consumption impacts.

The combination of all direct, industrial and consumption effects would result in a total estimated increase of 109 jobs located in Bankstown City. This represents a Type 2 Employment multiplier of 1.12.

Employment impacts would not be limited to the local economy. Industrial and consumption effects would flow outside the region to the wider Australian economy creating a further 49 jobs.

The combined effect of economic multipliers in Bankstown City and the wider Australian economy is estimated to be an addition of 158 jobs.

Impact on Value-added

The direct addition of $10.0 million annual output in the Retail Trade sector of Bankstown City economy would lead to a corresponding direct increase in Value-added of $6.19m. A further $0.81m in Value-added would be generated from related intermediate industries. These indirect industrial impacts represent a Type 1 Value-added multiplier of 1.13.

There would be an additional contribution to Bankstown City economy through consumption effects as correspondingly more wages and salaries are spent in the local economy. It is estimated that this would result in a further increase in Value-added of $0.52m.

The combination of all direct, industrial and consumption effects would result in an estimated addition in Value-added of $7.52m in Bankstown City economy, representing a Type 2 Value-added multiplier of 1.22.

These impacts would not be limited to the local economy. Industrial and consumption effects would flow outside the region to the wider Australian economy to the tune of $6.55m in Value-added.

The combined effect of economic multipliers in Bankstown City and the wider Australian economy is estimated to be $14.07m added to Australia’s Value-added.

Impact on GRP

Value-added by industry represents the industry component of Gross Regional Product(GRP). The impact on Bankstown City’s GRP as a result of this change to the economy is directly equivalent to the change in Value-added outlined in the section above.

In summary, GRP in Bankstown City is estimated to increase by $7.52m.

The effect on the Australian economy (including Bankstown City) is estimated to be a growth in Gross Domestic Product(GDP) of $14.07m.

Impact on employment by industry sector

This table shows a detailed breakdown of how employment will be affected by the addition of $10.0 million annual output in the Retail Trade sector of Bankstown City economy. This includes both the direct industrial impact (Type 1) and ongoing consumption impact (Type 2).

Employment by industry sector
Bankstown City - Impact of $10.0 million new sales in 'Retail Trade' output (Type 1 & 2 combined impact)Employment impacts
Industry sectors (1-digit ANSIC)Existing jobs in Bankstown City*Jobs created in Bankstown CityJobs created outside of Bankstown CityJobs created for Bankstown City residents
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing112020
Mining4000
Manufacturing14,725240
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services1,045010
Construction7,481010
Wholesale Trade6,346030
Retail Trade7,22498744
Accommodation and Food Services3,379060
Transport, Postal and Warehousing5,776040
Information Media and Telecommunications1,298120
Financial and Insurance Services1,264130
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services990020
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services2,692161
Administrative and Support Services2,159120
Public Administration and Safety3,646010
Education and Training7,275120
Health Care and Social Assistance7,413120
Arts and Recreation Services784110
Other Services3,582120

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id The population experts

Employment by industry sector
Employment by industry sector Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 2 jobs Mining, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 0 jobs Manufacturing, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 4 jobs Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 1 jobs Construction, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 1 jobs Wholesale Trade, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 3 jobs Retail Trade, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 7 jobs Accommodation and Food Services, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 6 jobs Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 4 jobs Information Media and Telecommunications, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 2 jobs Financial and Insurance Services, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 3 jobs Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 2 jobs Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 6 jobs Administrative and Support Services, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 2 jobs Public Administration and Safety, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 1 jobs Education and Training, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 2 jobs Health Care and Social Assistance, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 2 jobs Arts and Recreation Services, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 1 jobs Other Services, Jobs created outside Bankstown City: 2 jobs Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 0 jobs Mining, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 0 jobs Manufacturing, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 2 jobs Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 0 jobs Construction, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 0 jobs Wholesale Trade, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 0 jobs Retail Trade, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 98 jobs Accommodation and Food Services, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 0 jobs Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 0 jobs Information Media and Telecommunications, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 1 jobs Financial and Insurance Services, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 1 jobs Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 0 jobs Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 1 jobs Administrative and Support Services, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 1 jobs Public Administration and Safety, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 0 jobs Education and Training, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 1 jobs Health Care and Social Assistance, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 1 jobs Arts and Recreation Services, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 1 jobs Other Services, Jobs created in Bankstown City: 1 jobs
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016
Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts

Resident employment impacts

The combination of all direct, industrial and consumption effects of adding $10.0 million annual output to the Retail Trade sector of Bankstown City economy would be an estimated increase of 48 jobs located in Bankstown City and 108 jobs located outside Bankstown City – a total of 156 jobs.

As some of Bankstown City’s residents leave the area to work and residents of other areas enter Bankstown City to work, not all of these jobs will be filled by Bankstown City residents. It is estimated that of the 156 jobs created, 48 or 30.8% would be expected to be filled by Bankstown City residents.

Industry employment impacts

The combination of all direct, industrial and consumption effects of adding $10.0 million annual output to the Retail Trade sector of Bankstown City economy would result in an estimated increase of 109 jobs located in Bankstown City.

Of the 109 jobs created within Bankstown City, 98, or 90.2% would be added within Retail Trade the sector. This includes the direct jobs created in the sector, and the effect of flow-on jobs within the same sector.

The largest increase in jobs outside Retail Trade would be in Manufacturing (2), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (1) and Education and Training (1).

A total of 49 jobs are estimated to be created outside Bankstown City, with the largest number being in Accommodation and Food Services (6) Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (6) and Transport, Postal and Warehousing (4).

Impact on value-added by industry sector

This table shows a detailed breakdown of how adding $10.0 million annual output in the Retail Trade sector of Bankstown City economy will impact on the Value-added of each industry sector. This highlights the relationships between industry. This includes both the direct industrial impact (Type 1) and ongoing consumption impact (Type 2).

Value-added by industry
Bankstown City - Impact of $10.0 million new sales in 'Retail Trade' output (Type 1 & 2 combined impact)Value added 2013-14 ($m constant prices)
Industry sectors (1-digit ANSIC)Value-added to Bankstown CityPercentage changeValue-added to Australian economy
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing$0.000.1%$0.25
Mining$0.000.3%$0.12
Manufacturing$0.140.0%$0.56
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services$0.060.0%$0.37
Construction$0.010.0%$0.07
Wholesale Trade$0.040.0%$0.43
Retail Trade$6.261.4%$6.75
Accommodation and Food Services$0.030.0%$0.39
Transport, Postal and Warehousing$0.040.0%$0.50
Information Media and Telecommunications$0.150.1%$0.55
Financial and Insurance Services$0.220.0%$1.41
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services$0.030.0%$0.64
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services$0.130.0%$0.77
Administrative and Support Services$0.130.1%$0.33
Public Administration and Safety$0.020.0%$0.08
Education and Training$0.090.0%$0.28
Health Care and Social Assistance$0.070.0%$0.23
Arts and Recreation Services$0.050.1%$0.11
Other Services$0.060.0%$0.22

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id The population experts

Value-added by industry
Value-added by industry Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Value-added to total Australian economy: $0.3m Mining, Value-added to total Australian economy: $0.1m Manufacturing, Value-added to total Australian economy: $0.6m Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Value-added to total Australian economy: $0.4m Construction, Value-added to total Australian economy: $0.1m Wholesale Trade, Value-added to total Australian economy: $0.4m Retail Trade, Value-added to total Australian economy: $6.8m Accommodation and Food Services, Value-added to total Australian economy: $0.4m Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Value-added to total Australian economy: $0.5m Information Media and Telecommunications, Value-added to total Australian economy: $0.5m Financial and Insurance Services, Value-added to total Australian economy: $1.4m Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, Value-added to total Australian economy: $0.6m Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Value-added to total Australian economy: $0.8m Administrative and Support Services, Value-added to total Australian economy: $0.3m Public Administration and Safety, Value-added to total Australian economy: $0.1m Education and Training, Value-added to total Australian economy: $0.3m Health Care and Social Assistance, Value-added to total Australian economy: $0.2m Arts and Recreation Services, Value-added to total Australian economy: $0.1m Other Services, Value-added to total Australian economy: $0.2m Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $0.0m Mining, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $0.0m Manufacturing, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $0.1m Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $0.1m Construction, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $0.0m Wholesale Trade, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $0.0m Retail Trade, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $6.3m Accommodation and Food Services, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $0.0m Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $0.0m Information Media and Telecommunications, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $0.2m Financial and Insurance Services, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $0.2m Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $0.0m Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $0.1m Administrative and Support Services, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $0.1m Public Administration and Safety, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $0.0m Education and Training, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $0.1m Health Care and Social Assistance, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $0.1m Arts and Recreation Services, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $0.0m Other Services, Value-added to Local GRP (industry): $0.1m
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016
Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts

The combination of all direct, industrial and consumption effects of adding $10.0 million annual output to the Retail Trade sector of Bankstown City economy would result in an estimated increase in Value-added of $7.52m in Bankstown City economy.

The Retail Trade sector of the economy is estimated to increase in Value-added by 1.4%, with the total Bankstown City economy estimated to grow by 0.1%.

The main impacts in Value-added within Bankstown City, outside of Retail Trade, are in Financial and Insurance Services (0.22m), Information Media and Telecommunications (0.15m) and Manufacturing (0.14m).

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