Cradle Coast RegionEconomic profile
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Cradle Coast Region

Shift-share analysis

In Cradle Coast Region, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2010/11 and 2015/16 was experienced in Retail Trade.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

Did you know? By clicking/tapping on a data row in the table you will be able to see sub categories.
Shift-share analysis to Tasmania
Cradle Coast Region - Employment (Total)2015/162010/112010/11 to 2015/16
Industry
(Click rows to view sub-categories)
NumberNumberChangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing3,8123,800+13+3.0-95.0+104.6
Mining1,6372,030-393+1.6-328.5-66.1
Manufacturing6,6036,563+41+5.2-556.5+591.9
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services784604+180+0.5+11.1+168.8
Construction4,0274,089-62+3.2+65.0-130.3
Wholesale Trade2,2082,059+149+1.6+6.3+141.2
Retail Trade5,9885,803+185+4.6+45.7+134.9
Accommodation and Food Services3,4763,483-7+2.7+53.5-63.4
Transport, Postal and Warehousing2,9342,951-17+2.3-43.4+24.5
Information Media and Telecommunications407399+8+0.3-1.4+9.3
Financial and Insurance Services756753+3+0.6-9.1+11.6
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services596587+9+0.5-0.4+8.9
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services1,6011,588+13+1.2+27.8-15.8
Administrative and Support Services1,6171,646-29+1.3+13.5-43.7
Public Administration and Safety2,9592,969-9+2.3+26.8-38.2
Education and Training4,1144,177-63+3.3+139.9-206.3
Health Care and Social Assistance5,0995,387-288+4.2+65.5-357.7
Arts and Recreation Services401371+31+0.3+21.5+8.7
Other Services2,1372,079+58+1.6+37.4+19.2

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id , the population experts.

Data is based on 2014-15 constant prices for all years. NIEIR data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and new data releases normally adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.

Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2010/11 to 2015/16
Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2010/11 to 2015/16 Net change in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: 104.6 Net change in Mining, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: -66.1 Net change in Manufacturing, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: 591.9 Net change in Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: 168.8 Net change in Construction, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: -130.3 Net change in Wholesale Trade, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: 141.2 Net change in Retail Trade, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: 134.9 Net change in Accommodation and Food Services, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: -63.4 Net change in Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: 24.5 Net change in Information Media and Telecommunications, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: 9.3 Net change in Financial and Insurance Services, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: 11.6 Net change in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: 8.9 Net change in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: -15.8 Net change in Administrative and Support Services, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: -43.7 Net change in Public Administration and Safety, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: -38.2 Net change in Education and Training, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: -206.3 Net change in Health Care and Social Assistance, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: -357.7 Net change in Arts and Recreation Services, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: 8.7 Net change in Other Services, Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania: 19.2
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016
Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts

Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2010/11 and 2015/16 in Cradle Coast Region in 2015/16 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in Cradle Coast Region relative to Tasmania were:

  • Manufacturing (+591.9)
  • Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services (+168.8)
  • Wholesale Trade (+141.2)

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Health Care and Social Assistance (-357.7)
  • Education and Training (-206.3)
  • Construction (-130.3)

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