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Circular Head Council area

Shift-share analysis

In Circular Head Council area, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2010/11 and 2015/16 was experienced in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

Did you know? By clicking/tapping on a data row in the table you will be able to see sub categories.
Shift-share analysis to Greater Hobart
Circular Head Council area - Employment (Total)2015/162010/112010/11 to 2015/16
Industry
(Click rows to view sub-categories)
NumberNumberChangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing1,004981+23+35.9-81.9+68.6
Mining131144-13+5.3-9.5-8.7
Manufacturing740822-82+30.0-151.0+39.5
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services3324+9+0.9-2.1+10.0
Construction293284+9+10.4-8.7+7.0
Wholesale Trade129148-19+5.4-1.7-22.3
Retail Trade319378-59+13.8+7.0-79.5
Accommodation and Food Services243228+15+8.3-0.5+7.3
Transport, Postal and Warehousing144138+6+5.1-3.9+4.7
Information Media and Telecommunications2712+15+0.5-0.4+14.4
Financial and Insurance Services4743+4+1.6-0.8+3.2
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services4342+1+1.5-0.6+0.1
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services8688-2+3.2+0.6-6.0
Administrative and Support Services5572-17+2.6+1.1-20.4
Public Administration and Safety111115-4+4.2-0.6-7.3
Education and Training250275-25+10.1+27.4-62.3
Health Care and Social Assistance201208-7+7.6+11.9-26.2
Arts and Recreation Services2116+5+0.6+1.3+3.3
Other Services139128+11+4.7-1.2+7.0

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id , the population experts.

Data is based on 2015-16 constant prices for all years. NIEIR data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and new data releases normally adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.

Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2010/11 to 2015/16
Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2010/11 to 2015/16 Net change in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: 68.6 Net change in Mining, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -8.7 Net change in Manufacturing, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: 39.5 Net change in Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: 10.0 Net change in Construction, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: 7.0 Net change in Wholesale Trade, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -22.3 Net change in Retail Trade, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -79.5 Net change in Accommodation and Food Services, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: 7.3 Net change in Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: 4.7 Net change in Information Media and Telecommunications, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: 14.4 Net change in Financial and Insurance Services, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: 3.2 Net change in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: 0.1 Net change in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -6.0 Net change in Administrative and Support Services, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -20.4 Net change in Public Administration and Safety, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -7.3 Net change in Education and Training, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -62.3 Net change in Health Care and Social Assistance, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -26.2 Net change in Arts and Recreation Services, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: 3.3 Net change in Other Services, Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart: 7.0
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016
Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts

Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2010/11 and 2015/16 in Circular Head Council area in 2014/15 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in Circular Head Council area relative to Greater Hobart were:

  • Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (+68.6)
  • Manufacturing (+39.5)
  • Information Media and Telecommunications (+14.4)

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Retail Trade (-79.5)
  • Education and Training (-62.3)
  • Health Care and Social Assistance (-26.2)

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