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Waratah-Wynyard Council area

Shift-share analysis

In Waratah-Wynyard Council area, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2010/11 and 2015/16 was experienced in Manufacturing.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

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Shift-share analysis to Greater Hobart
Waratah-Wynyard Council area - Employment (Total)2015/162010/112010/11 to 2015/16
Industry
(Click rows to view sub-categories)
NumberNumberChangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing394417-23+15.3-34.9-3.4
Mining434474-40+17.3-31.1-26.1
Manufacturing483471+11+17.2-86.7+80.9
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services169+6+0.4-0.8+6.7
Construction410412-1+15.1-12.7-3.7
Wholesale Trade305366-61+13.4-4.1-70.3
Retail Trade415483-68+17.7+8.9-94.4
Accommodation and Food Services292299-7+10.9-0.7-17.2
Transport, Postal and Warehousing166170-4+6.2-4.8-4.9
Information Media and Telecommunications1411+3+0.4-0.3+2.5
Financial and Insurance Services3332--+1.2-0.6-0.1
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services3538-3+1.4-0.5-3.6
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services130128+1+4.7+0.8-4.1
Administrative and Support Services5559-4+2.2+0.9-7.4
Public Administration and Safety113122-9+4.5-0.7-12.8
Education and Training280340-61+12.5+33.8-106.9
Health Care and Social Assistance409455-45+16.6+26.1-88.0
Arts and Recreation Services2216+6+0.6+1.3+4.3
Other Services171167+5+6.1-1.50

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id , the population experts.

Data is based on 2014-15 constant prices for all years. NIEIR data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and new data releases normally adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.

Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2010/11 to 2015/16
Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2010/11 to 2015/16 Net change in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -3.4 Net change in Mining, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -26.1 Net change in Manufacturing, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: 80.9 Net change in Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: 6.7 Net change in Construction, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -3.7 Net change in Wholesale Trade, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -70.3 Net change in Retail Trade, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -94.4 Net change in Accommodation and Food Services, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -17.2 Net change in Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -4.9 Net change in Information Media and Telecommunications, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: 2.5 Net change in Financial and Insurance Services, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -0.1 Net change in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -3.6 Net change in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -4.1 Net change in Administrative and Support Services, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -7.4 Net change in Public Administration and Safety, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -12.8 Net change in Education and Training, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -106.9 Net change in Health Care and Social Assistance, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: -88.0 Net change in Arts and Recreation Services, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: 4.3 Net change in Other Services, Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart: 0.0
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016
Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts

Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2010/11 and 2015/16 in Waratah-Wynyard Council area in 2015/16 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in Waratah-Wynyard Council area relative to Greater Hobart were:

  • Manufacturing (+80.9)
  • Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services (+6.7)
  • Arts and Recreation Services (+4.3)

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Education and Training (-106.9)
  • Retail Trade (-94.4)
  • Health Care and Social Assistance (-88.0)

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