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Murchison Area

Shift-share analysis

In Murchison Area, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2010/11 and 2015/16 was experienced in Construction.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

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Shift-share analysis to Greater Hobart
Murchison Area - Employment (Total)2015/162010/112010/11 to 2015/16
Industry
(Click rows to view sub-categories)
NumberNumberChangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing1,7051,733-27+63.3-144.6+54.1
Mining1,4211,782-362+65.1-116.8-310.0
Manufacturing1,4601,597-137+58.4-293.6+97.7
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services122100+23+3.7-8.4+27.3
Construction936907+29+33.1-27.8+24.1
Wholesale Trade478584-106+21.3-6.5-121.1
Retail Trade9371,103-166+40.3+20.3-226.7
Accommodation and Food Services878899-21+32.9-2.0-52.1
Transport, Postal and Warehousing463467-4+17.1-13.3-7.4
Information Media and Telecommunications5946+13+1.7-1.3+12.6
Financial and Insurance Services9793+4+3.4-1.8+2.2
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services110106+3+3.9-1.4+0.7
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services257267-11+9.8+1.8-22.1
Administrative and Support Services227264-37+9.7+3.9-51.0
Public Administration and Safety398424-26+15.5-2.4-39.5
Education and Training713819-107+30.0+81.4-218.2
Health Care and Social Assistance744801-58+29.3+45.9-132.8
Arts and Recreation Services8283--+3.0+6.9-10.4
Other Services407398+9+14.5-3.6-1.7

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id , the population experts.

Data is based on 2015-16 constant prices for all years. NIEIR data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and new data releases normally adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.

Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2010/11 to 2015/16
Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2010/11 to 2015/16 Net change in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: 54.1 Net change in Mining, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: -310.0 Net change in Manufacturing, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: 97.7 Net change in Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: 27.3 Net change in Construction, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: 24.1 Net change in Wholesale Trade, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: -121.1 Net change in Retail Trade, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: -226.7 Net change in Accommodation and Food Services, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: -52.1 Net change in Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: -7.4 Net change in Information Media and Telecommunications, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: 12.6 Net change in Financial and Insurance Services, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: 2.2 Net change in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: 0.7 Net change in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: -22.1 Net change in Administrative and Support Services, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: -51.0 Net change in Public Administration and Safety, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: -39.5 Net change in Education and Training, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: -218.2 Net change in Health Care and Social Assistance, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: -132.8 Net change in Arts and Recreation Services, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: -10.4 Net change in Other Services, Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart: -1.7
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016
Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts

Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2010/11 and 2015/16 in Murchison Area in 2014/15 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in Murchison Area relative to Greater Hobart were:

  • Manufacturing (+97.7)
  • Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (+54.1)
  • Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services (+27.3)

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Mining (-310.0)
  • Retail Trade (-226.7)
  • Education and Training (-218.2)

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