Gunnedah Shire CouncilEconomic profile

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Gunnedah Shire

Shift-share analysis

In Gunnedah Shire, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2010/11 and 2015/16 was experienced in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

Did you know? By clicking/tapping on a data row in the table you will be able to see sub categories.
Shift-share analysis to New South Wales
Gunnedah Shire - Employment (Total)2015/162010/112010/11 to 2015/16
Industry
(Click rows to view sub-categories)
NumberNumberChangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing1,1491,051+98+81.7-36.9+53.2
Mining264247+16+19.3+5.0-7.8
Manufacturing371400-29+31.1-34.5-25.9
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services5453+1+4.2+0.3-3.9
Construction329366-38+28.5-0.6-65.7
Wholesale Trade169171-2+13.4-2.5-12.9
Retail Trade572544+28+42.3+0.3-14.7
Accommodation and Food Services405368+37+28.6+9.5-1.3
Transport, Postal and Warehousing311274+37+21.3-2.4+17.9
Information Media and Telecommunications4139+2+3.10-1.5
Financial and Insurance Services8079--+6.2+0.3-6.1
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services9082+8+6.40+1.3
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services204201+3+15.6+3.6-16.0
Administrative and Support Services126110+16+8.6+2.3+5.1
Public Administration and Safety317292+26+22.7+1.0+2.0
Education and Training456432+24+33.6+7.8-17.3
Health Care and Social Assistance492483+9+37.6+10.8-39.0
Arts and Recreation Services5750+7+4.0+1.4+1.1
Other Services273263+10+20.4+2.1-12.1

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id , the population experts.

Data is based on 2015-16 constant prices for all years. NIEIR data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and new data releases normally adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.

Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2010/11 to 2015/16
Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2010/11 to 2015/16 Net change in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 53.2 Net change in Mining, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -7.8 Net change in Manufacturing, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -25.9 Net change in Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -3.9 Net change in Construction, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -65.7 Net change in Wholesale Trade, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -12.9 Net change in Retail Trade, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -14.7 Net change in Accommodation and Food Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -1.3 Net change in Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 17.9 Net change in Information Media and Telecommunications, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -1.5 Net change in Financial and Insurance Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -6.1 Net change in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 1.3 Net change in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -16.0 Net change in Administrative and Support Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 5.1 Net change in Public Administration and Safety, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 2.0 Net change in Education and Training, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -17.3 Net change in Health Care and Social Assistance, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -39.0 Net change in Arts and Recreation Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 1.1 Net change in Other Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -12.1
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016
Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts

Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2010/11 and 2015/16 in Gunnedah Shire in 2014/15 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales were:

  • Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (+53.2)
  • Transport, Postal and Warehousing (+17.9)
  • Administrative and Support Services (+5.1)

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Construction (-65.7)
  • Health Care and Social Assistance (-39.0)
  • Manufacturing (-25.9)

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