Gunnedah Shire CouncilEconomic profile

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Gunnedah Shire

Shift-share analysis

In Gunnedah Shire, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2009/10 and 2014/15 was experienced in Retail Trade.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

Did you know? By clicking/tapping on a data row in the table you will be able to see sub categories.
Shift-share analysis to New South Wales
Gunnedah Shire - Employment (Total)2014/152009/102009/10 to 2014/15
Industry
(Click rows to view sub-categories)
NumberNumberChangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing8221,072-251+77.2-65.1-262.7
Mining275299-24+21.6-0.8-45.0
Manufacturing426332+94+23.9-52.6+122.7
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services9468+25+4.9+0.1+20.4
Construction356389-33+28.0+2.7-63.6
Wholesale Trade146201-55+14.5-4.1-65.8
Retail Trade745481+264+34.7-3.9+232.9
Accommodation and Food Services362347+15+25.0+12.5-22.0
Transport, Postal and Warehousing309218+91+15.7-5.0+80.6
Information Media and Telecommunications3750-13+3.6+0.8-17.7
Financial and Insurance Services6965+4+4.7+0.9-1.3
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services7760+18+4.3-0.1+13.3
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services216172+45+12.4+8.1+24.2
Administrative and Support Services255128+127+9.3+4.5+113.2
Public Administration and Safety434248+186+17.9+6.7+161.3
Education and Training386378+8+27.2+8.7-27.4
Health Care and Social Assistance461438+23+31.5+17.7-26.0
Arts and Recreation Services5156-5+4.1+3.0-12.5
Other Services259213+46+15.4+4.0+26.8

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id , the population experts.

Data is based on 2013-14 constant prices for all years. NIEIR data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and new data releases normally adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.

Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2009/10 to 2014/15
Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2009/10 to 2014/15 Net change in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -262.7 Net change in Mining, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -45.0 Net change in Manufacturing, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 122.7 Net change in Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 20.4 Net change in Construction, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -63.6 Net change in Wholesale Trade, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -65.8 Net change in Retail Trade, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 232.9 Net change in Accommodation and Food Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -22.0 Net change in Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 80.6 Net change in Information Media and Telecommunications, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -17.7 Net change in Financial and Insurance Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -1.3 Net change in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 13.3 Net change in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 24.2 Net change in Administrative and Support Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 113.2 Net change in Public Administration and Safety, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 161.3 Net change in Education and Training, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -27.4 Net change in Health Care and Social Assistance, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -26.0 Net change in Arts and Recreation Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -12.5 Net change in Other Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 26.8
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016
Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts

Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2009/10 and 2014/15 in Gunnedah Shire in 2014/15 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales were:

  • Retail Trade (+232.9)
  • Public Administration and Safety (+161.3)
  • Manufacturing (+122.7)

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (-262.7)
  • Wholesale Trade (-65.8)
  • Construction (-63.6)

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