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City of Monash

Shift-share analysis

In City of Monash, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2010/11 and 2015/16 was experienced in Education and Training.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

Did you know? By clicking/tapping on a data row in the table you will be able to see sub categories.
Shift-share analysis to Victoria
City of Monash - Employment (Total)2015/162010/112010/11 to 2015/16
Industry
(Click rows to view sub-categories)
NumberNumberChangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing142112+30+7.0-4.3+27.3
Mining10289+13+5.6-6.9+14.7
Manufacturing14,50416,669-2,164+1,045.6-1,736.8-1,473.2
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services8521,109-257+69.6+39.4-365.4
Construction12,33610,900+1,435+683.7+81.4+670.3
Wholesale Trade10,83510,903-68+683.9-257.2-494.9
Retail Trade11,17511,795-620+739.9+152.8-1,512.6
Accommodation and Food Services4,5504,299+251+269.7+200.3-218.9
Transport, Postal and Warehousing4,5884,699-111+294.8-42.7-362.6
Information Media and Telecommunications2,6062,396+211+150.3-35.8+96.5
Financial and Insurance Services3,5583,140+417+197.0-14.6+234.9
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services1,8021,587+215+99.6+12.2+103.3
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services10,3438,991+1,352+564.0+116.6+671.4
Administrative and Support Services4,6644,066+598+255.1+84.0+258.8
Public Administration and Safety4,0493,504+545+219.8+9.7+315.3
Education and Training15,24313,687+1,555+858.5+307.9+389.0
Health Care and Social Assistance15,06513,961+1,104+875.7+532.9-304.8
Arts and Recreation Services1,0521,043+9+65.4+37.4-93.4
Other Services3,9903,788+202+237.6+42.7-78.0

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id , the population experts.

Data is based on 2014-15 constant prices for all years. NIEIR data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and new data releases normally adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.

Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2010/11 to 2015/16
Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2010/11 to 2015/16 Net change in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, City of Monash relative to Victoria: 27.3 Net change in Mining, City of Monash relative to Victoria: 14.7 Net change in Manufacturing, City of Monash relative to Victoria: -1,473.2 Net change in Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, City of Monash relative to Victoria: -365.4 Net change in Construction, City of Monash relative to Victoria: 670.3 Net change in Wholesale Trade, City of Monash relative to Victoria: -494.9 Net change in Retail Trade, City of Monash relative to Victoria: -1,512.6 Net change in Accommodation and Food Services, City of Monash relative to Victoria: -218.9 Net change in Transport, Postal and Warehousing, City of Monash relative to Victoria: -362.6 Net change in Information Media and Telecommunications, City of Monash relative to Victoria: 96.5 Net change in Financial and Insurance Services, City of Monash relative to Victoria: 234.9 Net change in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, City of Monash relative to Victoria: 103.3 Net change in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, City of Monash relative to Victoria: 671.4 Net change in Administrative and Support Services, City of Monash relative to Victoria: 258.8 Net change in Public Administration and Safety, City of Monash relative to Victoria: 315.3 Net change in Education and Training, City of Monash relative to Victoria: 389.0 Net change in Health Care and Social Assistance, City of Monash relative to Victoria: -304.8 Net change in Arts and Recreation Services, City of Monash relative to Victoria: -93.4 Net change in Other Services, City of Monash relative to Victoria: -78.0
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016
Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts

Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2010/11 and 2015/16 in City of Monash in 2015/16 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in City of Monash relative to Victoria were:

  • Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (+671.4)
  • Construction (+670.3)
  • Education and Training (+389.0)

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Retail Trade (-1,512.6)
  • Manufacturing (-1,473.2)
  • Wholesale Trade (-494.9)

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