The COVID 19 pandemic and policy responses enacted to limit its spread have generated uncertainty about the future of local economies. This uncertainty has created difficulties in planning economic development responses at a local government level. In response, .id has developed a COVID-19 Economic Forecast Tool that estimates likely quarterly economic and industry impacts out to June 2022.
The COVID-19 Extended quarterly industry forecast shows the likely transition pathways of an industry Pre and Post COVID-19. Charts in this page show the quarterly value, change (value and %) and index (100 = March Quarter 2020) for the Output, Value Added, Local Jobs and Employed Residents of industry, based on the 87 industry subsectors and 19 main industry divisions in the ANZSIC classification.
This tool should be viewed in conjunction with the COVID-19 Extended forecast section to see the impact of COVID-19 on the overall economy, and unemployment and JobSeeker section to understand the impact of COVID-19
This page is subject to the disclaimer and copyright notices as set out below.
Assumptions and methodology
Version 2.1 (Model updated 7 October 2020. See revision notes below)
NIEIR has estimated the potential impacts of coronavirus on economic activity, employment and sectors at the LGA level. Model outputs above are based on information available before September 24.
The forecast model estimates the impact on final demand on each industry and then calculates the multiplier effects using NIEIR’s regional database. Assumptions are made about the household, business and government supression rates directly flowing from the measures introduced to contain the virus. The impact of economic measures is also incorporated into the modelling. A contingency factor is also assumed to account for downside risks (e.g. productivity impacts from working at home).
Notes on LGA projections – September 2020
This note applies to the updated LGA projections issued in September 2020. The initial June quarter 2020 projection prepared in early April 2020 included a 12 per cent decline in national GDP. This has now been revised upward to -7.5%. The main reason for the difference was:
- earlier easing of restrictions over June than what was assumed; and
- a higher increase in household savings because of an assumed 50 per cent fall in other discretionary household expenditures.
That is, it was assumed that settings close to Stage Four restrictions would apply to the general retail sector even if not made mandatory because high infection levels will produce the same result. It would appear that Australia’s success in controlling initial infection rates saved between 3 and 5 per cent of GDP. This is consistent with international evidence. More information on the update can be found here.
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