COVID-19 Economic Outlook Tool
COVID19 will obviously have a substantial negative impact on economic activity in 2020. In response, .id has developed a COVID-19 Outlook Tool to show the economic and industry impacts at the LGA level. This tool draws on the economic forecast model developed by NIEIR and focuses on the impacts to September 2020.
This tool should be viewed in conjunction with Unemployment and JobSeeker section to understand the impact of COVID-19 on the local labour force. To monitor the impact of COVID-19 on local businesses, see the Business Trends section.
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Headline estimates - CairnsImpacts refer to September quarter 2020 compared to September quarter 2019
Local job change
Employed resident change
Sector impacts - Top 3 (without the JobKeeper scheme)
- Accommodation and Food Services (-2,922 local jobs)
- Transport, Postal and Warehousing (-747 local jobs)
- Arts and Recreation Services (-445 local jobs)
- GRP is forecast to be 4.1% lower in the September quarter 2020 than the same quarter in 2019. This fall is greater than that experienced by the state as a whole.
- Local Jobs are forecast to fall by -1.8% in the September Quarter 2020. This equates to a fall of 1,575 local jobs.
- In the absence of JobKeeper payments, the employment fall is estimated at -3.4% (2,942 jobs)
- The impact on employed residents (1.2%) was lower than the local job impact.
- with JobKeeper
- without JobKeeper
The impact of COVID-19 will vary from region to region and will depend on the regions supply chain and trade exposure (domestic and international), reliance on tourism and exposure to consumer demand (e.g. accommodation, food services, arts and recreation).
The chart below presents the output and value added impacts of COVID-19 in the September Quarter 2020. Output refers to the total sales of each industry in the region. Value Added refers to the wages and salaries paid to workers in the region, the gross operating surplus and taxes. Value added impacts show how the different industries impact GRP in the region.
- Value Added
Local Jobs Impact
This indicator shows the estimated number of jobs in Cairns. Local job impacts are typically higher in regions with a relatively high share of service sector and labour-intensive jobs (e.g. tourism and hospitality, entertainment, and business services).
Definition: Local jobs change – change in Local jobs as defined by the ABS; (2) Local jobs change without JobKeeper – change in Local jobs in the absence of JobKeeper payments; and (3) Local jobs compensated by JobKeeper – Local jobs counted as employed who would have been unemployed without JobKeeper.
- Local jobs
- Local jobs compensated by JobKeeper
Employed Resident Impacts
Another way of looking at the impacts is to analyse the industry impact on local residents, that is employed residents who live in the region but may work elsewhere. This is important in understanding the impacts on council rates and local unemployment.
Definition: Employed residents change – change in Employed residents as defined by the ABS; (2) Employed residents change without JobKeeper – change in Employed residents in the absence of JobKeeper payments; and (3) Employed residents compensated by JobKeeper – Employed residents counted as employed who would have been unemployed without JobKeeper.
- Employed residents
- Employed residents compensated by JobKeeper