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Cairns

Shift-share analysis

In Cairns, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2012/13 and 2017/18 was experienced in Health Care and Social Assistance.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

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Shift-share analysis to Queensland
Cairns - Employment (Total)2017/182012/132012/13 to 2017/18
Industry
(Click rows to view sub-categories)
NumberNumberChangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing1,3921,116+276+92.7+24.2+159.0
Mining285557-272+46.3-66.0-252.6
Manufacturing4,1723,274+898+271.8-557.3+1,183.1
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services744890-146+73.9-198.2-21.5
Construction8,1917,016+1,175+582.4-145.3+737.8
Wholesale Trade1,8762,091-215+173.6-559.8+171.4
Retail Trade9,5268,641+885+717.2-159.4+327.6
Accommodation and Food Services8,6357,503+1,132+622.8+583.5-74.3
Transport, Postal and Warehousing4,8744,903-29+407.0-339.8-96.4
Information Media and Telecommunications750798-48+66.3-106.1-8.3
Financial and Insurance Services1,3101,255+55+104.2-63.7+14.7
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services1,5161,471+46+122.1-32.3-44.1
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services3,8803,962-83+328.9-162.9-248.5
Administrative and Support Services3,7672,885+881+239.5+165.9+476.0
Public Administration and Safety6,4245,972+453+495.7-19.1-23.8
Education and Training8,1456,604+1,541+548.2+1,174.6-181.7
Health Care and Social Assistance12,54110,476+2,065+869.5+1,605.2-409.8
Arts and Recreation Services1,7301,406+324+116.8+98.8+108.2
Other Services3,6713,043+629+252.6+0.3+376.0

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2018. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id , the population experts.

Data are based on a 2016-17 price base for all years. NIEIR-ID data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and annual data releases adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.Learn more

Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2012/13 to 2017/18
Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2012/13 to 2017/18 Net change in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Cairns relative to Queensland: 159.0 Net change in Mining, Cairns relative to Queensland: -252.6 Net change in Manufacturing, Cairns relative to Queensland: 1,183.1 Net change in Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Cairns relative to Queensland: -21.5 Net change in Construction, Cairns relative to Queensland: 737.8 Net change in Wholesale Trade, Cairns relative to Queensland: 171.4 Net change in Retail Trade, Cairns relative to Queensland: 327.6 Net change in Accommodation and Food Services, Cairns relative to Queensland: -74.3 Net change in Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Cairns relative to Queensland: -96.4 Net change in Information Media and Telecommunications, Cairns relative to Queensland: -8.3 Net change in Financial and Insurance Services, Cairns relative to Queensland: 14.7 Net change in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, Cairns relative to Queensland: -44.1 Net change in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Cairns relative to Queensland: -248.5 Net change in Administrative and Support Services, Cairns relative to Queensland: 476.0 Net change in Public Administration and Safety, Cairns relative to Queensland: -23.8 Net change in Education and Training, Cairns relative to Queensland: -181.7 Net change in Health Care and Social Assistance, Cairns relative to Queensland: -409.8 Net change in Arts and Recreation Services, Cairns relative to Queensland: 108.2 Net change in Other Services, Cairns relative to Queensland: 376.0
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2018
Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts

Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2012/13 and 2017/18 in Cairns in 2017/18 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in Cairns relative to Queensland were:

  • Manufacturing (+1,183.1)
  • Construction (+737.8)
  • Administrative and Support Services (+476.0)

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Health Care and Social Assistance (-409.8)
  • Mining (-252.6)
  • Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (-248.5)

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