Cardinia Shire

Shift-share analysis

In Cardinia Shire, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2001/02 and 2018/19 was experienced in Retail Trade.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

Data source

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

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Shift-share analysis to Victoria
Cardinia Shire - Employment (Total)2018/192001/022001/02 to 2018/19
IndustryNumbernumberchangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing1,9991,775+224+830.9-927.0+320.0
Mining19190+101+42.3+68.0-9.4
Manufacturing2,4531,533+920+717.7-884.2+1,085.9
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services309170+140+79.6+75.1-15.0
Construction4,8161,882+2,934+880.8+1,007.5+1,045.5
Wholesale Trade604613-8+286.9-237.0-58.2
Retail Trade4,3371,750+2,587+819.1-218.1+1,986.5
Accommodation and Food Services2,168943+1,224+441.7+134.9+647.7
Transport, Postal and Warehousing1,606641+965+300.3+120.8+544.1
Information Media and Telecommunications216175+41+82.3-57.7+16.3
Financial and Insurance Services381186+195+87.2+7.6+100.6
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services409204+205+95.6-0.3+110.0
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services1,415614+801+287.6+204.8+308.9
Administrative and Support Services761410+350+192.3-14.6+172.8
Public Administration and Safety779298+481+139.6+112.2+229.4
Education and Training3,3951,319+2,076+617.5+234.4+1,224.5
Health Care and Social Assistance2,7121,076+1,636+503.8+294.9+837.1
Arts and Recreation Services760258+502+120.8+78.0+303.1
Other Services1,348590+758+276.4-64.5+545.9
Total Industries30,66914,536+16,133+6,802.4--+9,330.5

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2019. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts. Data are based on a 2016-17 price base for all years. NIEIR-ID data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and annual data releases adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.Learn more

Please refer to specific data notes for more information
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Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2001/02 and 2018/19 in Cardinia Shire in 2018/19 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in Cardinia Shire relative to Victoria were:

  • Retail Trade (+1,987 )
  • Education and Training (+1,224 )
  • Manufacturing (+1,086 )

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Mining (-9 )
  • Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services (-15 )
  • Wholesale Trade (-58 )

Cardinia Shire

economic profile