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Goulburn Mulwaree Council area

Shift-share analysis

This page has been updated with 2016-17 NIEIR-ID economic model data

You may notice some changes to current and past data. Learn more about these changes.

In Goulburn Mulwaree Council area, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2011/12 and 2016/17 was experienced in Health Care and Social Assistance.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

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Shift-share analysis to Regional NSW
Goulburn Mulwaree Council area - Employment (Total)2016/172011/122011/12 to 2016/17
Industry
(Click rows to view sub-categories)
NumberNumberChangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing615556+59-10.7+34.7+35.1
Mining310537-227-10.3-51.6-164.6
Manufacturing929803+126-15.4-351.7+493.1
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services148155-7-3.0-5.1+1.3
Construction1,108802+306-15.4+52.4+269.0
Wholesale Trade275276-2-5.3-48.9+52.6
Retail Trade1,4351,478-43-28.3-11.0-3.4
Accommodation and Food Services1,0911,007+84-19.3+90.9+12.0
Transport, Postal and Warehousing694711-18-13.6-19.8+15.9
Information Media and Telecommunications107140-33-2.7+1.4-31.7
Financial and Insurance Services153180-27-3.5-1.2-22.2
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services177147+29-2.8-4.4+36.5
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services439421+18-8.1+28.8-3.3
Administrative and Support Services359308+51-5.9+44.3+12.8
Public Administration and Safety1,2681,289-21-24.7+57.0-53.7
Education and Training1,039930+109-17.8+128.0-0.9
Health Care and Social Assistance2,2951,856+439-35.5+419.7+54.8
Arts and Recreation Services193142+51-2.7+29.2+24.8
Other Services511479+33-9.2-0.4+42.4

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id , the population experts.

Data are based on a 2015-16 price base for all years. NIEIR-ID data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and annual data releases adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.Learn more

Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2011/12 to 2016/17
Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2011/12 to 2016/17 Net change in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: 35.1 Net change in Mining, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: -164.6 Net change in Manufacturing, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: 493.1 Net change in Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: 1.3 Net change in Construction, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: 269.0 Net change in Wholesale Trade, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: 52.6 Net change in Retail Trade, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: -3.4 Net change in Accommodation and Food Services, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: 12.0 Net change in Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: 15.9 Net change in Information Media and Telecommunications, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: -31.7 Net change in Financial and Insurance Services, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: -22.2 Net change in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: 36.5 Net change in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: -3.3 Net change in Administrative and Support Services, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: 12.8 Net change in Public Administration and Safety, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: -53.7 Net change in Education and Training, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: -0.9 Net change in Health Care and Social Assistance, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: 54.8 Net change in Arts and Recreation Services, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: 24.8 Net change in Other Services, Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW: 42.4
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016
Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts

Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2011/12 and 2016/17 in Goulburn Mulwaree Council area in 2016/17 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in Goulburn Mulwaree Council area relative to Regional NSW were:

  • Manufacturing (+493.1)
  • Construction (+269.0)
  • Health Care and Social Assistance (+54.8)

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Mining (-164.6)
  • Public Administration and Safety (-53.7)
  • Information Media and Telecommunications (-31.7)

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