City of Darebin

Outlook overview

Impacts of COVID-19 on City of Darebin's Economy

COVID19 will have a substantial negative impact on economic activity in 2020. The spatial impacts of the pandemic are uneven and will depend on the level of cases, industry mix and export exposure. In response, .id has developed a COVID-19 Outlook Tool to show the economic and industry impacts at the LGA level. This tool draws on NIEIR’s economic forecasts of COVID-19 over a three year period.

Compared to pre COVID-19 forecasts, City of Darebin's economy will be -139 million, or -1.9% smaller in 2020. This impact is relatively low and is below Greater Melbourne impact of -2.2%.

As illustrated in the figure below, the cumulative impact of COVID-19 is estimated at 139 million over the next two years.

There will be around -726 fewer jobs in 2020 than the pre COVID 19 forecasts. This impact represents around -1.2% of all jobs, above the impact on Greater Melbourne. Local Jobs are not forecast to reach pre COVID-19 levels before June Qtr 2022. The impact on Employed residents is forecast to be higher than Local Jobs.

But many more jobs are vulnerable* and are currently being supported by JobKeeper. The impacts on Local Jobs and Employed residents could be even higher without JobKeeper. The modelling shows that 1,828 Local Jobs, or 3.1% of all jobs, are at risk once the scheme is tapered back.

2019/20
Covid-19 Forecasts
(compared to pre-covid forecast)

Economic impacts on GRP

-1.9%

Impacts on employment

-1.2% Local Jobs

-1.2% Employed residents

Vulnerable jobs (working 0 hours but on JobKeeper as at March Qtr 2021)

1,828 Local jobs

3.1% of total jobs

The 3 most impacted sectors

  • Accommodation and Food Services: -467 Local jobs (-11.9%)
  • Retail Trade: -151 Local jobs (-1.8%)
  • Other Services: -124 Local jobs (-4.2%)
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City of Darebin

economic profile