COVID-19 Economic Outlook Tool
Version 1.1 (Model updated 7 May 2020. See revision notes below)
COVID19 will obviously have a substantial negative impact on economic activity in 2020. In response, .id has developed a COVID-19 Outlook Tool to show the economic and industry impacts at the LGA level. This tool draws on the economic forecast model developed by NIEIR and focuses on the impacts to June 2020. We will continue to update our forecasts as more information is known about the health measures and the effectiveness of economic policy.
This page is subject to the disclaimer and copyright notices as set out below.
Headline estimates - FNQROCImpacts refer to June Quarter 2020 compared to 2018/19 4-quarter average
Local job change
Employed resident change
Sector impacts - Top 3 (excluding JobKeeper)
- Accommodation and Food Services (-3,334 local jobs)
- Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (-1,288 local jobs)
- Education and Training (-1,115 local jobs)
- Gross Regional Product is forecast to fall by -13.0% in the June Quarter 2020. This fall was higher than the state average.
- Local Jobs are forecast to fall by -8.1% in the June Quarter 2020. This equates to a fall of 10,728 local jobs.
- If JobKeeper recipients impacts are included then the employment fall is estimated at -14.6% (19,356 jobs)
- The impact on employed residents (-8.1%) was lower than the local job impact.
The impact of COVID-19 will vary from region to region and will depend on the regions supply chain and trade exposure (domestic and international), reliance on tourism and exposure to consumer demand (e.g. accommodation, food services, arts and recreation).
The chart below presents the output and value added impacts of COVID-19 in the June Quarter 2020. Output refers to the total sales of each industry in the region. Value Added refers to the wages and salaries paid to workers in the region, the gross operating surplus and taxes. Value added impacts show how the different industries impact GRP in the region.
- Value Added
Local Jobs Impact
This indicator shows the estimated number of jobs in the FNQROC. Local job impacts are typically higher in regions with a relatively high share of service sector and labour-intensive jobs (e.g. tourism and hospitality, entertainment, and business services).
Employed Resident Impacts
Another way of looking at the impacts is to analyse the industry impact on local residents, that is employed residents who live in the region but may work elsewhere. This is important in understanding the impacts on council rates and local unemployment.
This page is the latest version of up-to-date economic data showing the local impact of COVID-19. However, as new information becomes available, e.g. changes to government stimulus, shifts in quarantine conditions, or the release of relevant date etc. revisions and updates will be applied, and new data will be added where possible.
Assumptions and methodology
NIEIR has estimated the potential impacts of coronavirus on economic activity, employment and sectors at the LGA level. Model outputs above are based on information available before May 7.
The forecast model estimates the impact on final demand on each industry and then calculates the multiplier effects using NIEIR’s regional database. Assumptions are made about the household, business and government supression rates directly flowing from the measures introduced to contain the virus. The impact of economic measures is also incorporated into the modelling. A contingency factor is also assumed to account for downside risks (e.g. productivity impacts from working at home).
The modelling assumes that rigid social distancing measures are maintained well into June. A gradual unwinding of social distancing measures are assumed but a more complete recovery only becomes possible when a vaccine becomes generally available by the March or June quarter 2021.
These forecasts are subject to a high degree of uncertainty and will continue to be improved and updated as more information is released.
Version 1.1 Revisions - model updated on 7 May 2020
For the June Quarter 2020, NIEIR’s Australia GDP estimate has been revised from -16.6% to -12.4%. Compared to NIEIR’s previous forecast (based on information available mid-April 2020), the better than expected containment of the virus has impacted assumptions related to household spending and social distancing impacts. This has resulted in lower impacts across a numbe of sectors. For example, impacts on Education have not been as high (e.g. restrictions on schools not as severe as first thought).
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