COVID19 will obviously have a substantial negative impact on economic activity in 2020. In response, .id has developed a COVID-19 Outlook Tool to show the economic and industry impacts at the LGA level. This tool draws on the economic forecast model developed by NIEIR and focuses on the impacts to September 2020.
This tool should be viewed in conjunction with Unemployment and JobSeeker section to understand the impact of COVID-19 on the local labour force. To monitor the impact of COVID-19 on local businesses, see the Business Trends section.
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Headline estimates - Kyogle Council areaImpacts refer to September quarter 2020 compared to September quarter 2019
Local job change
Employed resident change
Sector impacts - Top 3 (without the JobKeeper scheme)
- Accommodation and Food Services (-50 local jobs)
- Retail Trade (-32 local jobs)
- Construction (-23 local jobs)
- GRP is forecast to be 3.8% higher in the September quarter 2020 than the same quarter in 2019. This increase is in contrast to that experienced by the state as a whole.
- Local Jobs are forecast to grow by 0.4% in the September Quarter 2020. This equates to a growth of 12 local jobs.
- In the absence of JobKeeper payments, the employment growth is estimated at 0.4% (12 jobs)
- The impact on employed residents (-0.2%) was lower than the local job impact.
- with JobKeeper
- without JobKeeper
The impact of COVID-19 will vary from region to region and will depend on the regions supply chain and trade exposure (domestic and international), reliance on tourism and exposure to consumer demand (e.g. accommodation, food services, arts and recreation).
The chart below presents the output and value added impacts of COVID-19 in the September Quarter 2020. Output refers to the total sales of each industry in the region. Value Added refers to the wages and salaries paid to workers in the region, the gross operating surplus and taxes. Value added impacts show how the different industries impact GRP in the region.
- Value Added
Local Jobs Impact
This indicator shows the estimated number of jobs in Kyogle Council area. Local job impacts are typically higher in regions with a relatively high share of service sector and labour-intensive jobs (e.g. tourism and hospitality, entertainment, and business services).
Definition: Local jobs change – change in Local jobs as defined by the ABS; (2) Local jobs change without JobKeeper – change in Local jobs in the absence of JobKeeper payments; and (3) Local jobs compensated by JobKeeper – Local jobs counted as employed who would have been unemployed without JobKeeper.
- Local jobs
- Local jobs compensated by JobKeeper
Employed Resident Impacts
Another way of looking at the impacts is to analyse the industry impact on local residents, that is employed residents who live in the region but may work elsewhere. This is important in understanding the impacts on council rates and local unemployment.
Definition: Employed residents change – change in Employed residents as defined by the ABS; (2) Employed residents change without JobKeeper – change in Employed residents in the absence of JobKeeper payments; and (3) Employed residents compensated by JobKeeper – Employed residents counted as employed who would have been unemployed without JobKeeper.
- Employed residents
- Employed residents compensated by JobKeeper
Assumptions and methodology
Version 2.1 (Model updated 7 October 2020. See revision notes below)
NIEIR has estimated the potential impacts of coronavirus on economic activity, employment and sectors at the LGA level. Model outputs above are based on information available before September 24.
The forecast model estimates the impact on final demand on each industry and then calculates the multiplier effects using NIEIR’s regional database. Assumptions are made about the household, business and government supression rates directly flowing from the measures introduced to contain the virus. The impact of economic measures is also incorporated into the modelling. A contingency factor is also assumed to account for downside risks (e.g. productivity impacts from working at home).
Notes on LGA projections – September 2020
This note applies to the updated LGA projections issued in September 2020. The initial June quarter 2020 projection prepared in early April 2020 included a 12 per cent decline in national GDP. This has now been revised upward to -7.5%. The main reason for the difference was:
- earlier easing of restrictions over June than what was assumed; and
- a higher increase in household savings because of an assumed 50 per cent fall in other discretionary household expenditures.
That is, it was assumed that settings close to Stage Four restrictions would apply to the general retail sector even if not made mandatory because high infection levels will produce the same result. It would appear that Australia’s success in controlling initial infection rates saved between 3 and 5 per cent of GDP. This is consistent with international evidence. More information on the update can be found here.
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