Northern Midlands

Shift-share analysis

In Northern Midlands, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2016/17 and 2021/22 was experienced in Construction.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

Data source

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

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Shift-share analysis to Tasmania
Northern Midlands - Employment (Total)2021/222016/172016/17 to 2021/22
IndustryNumbernumberchangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing1,1901,010+181+164.9-19.9+35.5
Mining5822+36+3.6-1.5+34.0
Manufacturing846913-66+149.1-41.2-174.2
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services11252+60+8.5+1.7+50.2
Construction691475+216+77.7-33.2+171.2
Wholesale Trade577477+100+78.0-21.4+43.1
Retail Trade518408+109+66.7-50.7+93.3
Accommodation and Food Services320263+57+43.0-6.7+21.0
Transport, Postal and Warehousing727581+147+94.9-31.1+82.9
Information Media and Telecommunications0170+2.9-4.70
Financial and Insurance Services2422+2+3.6-1.1-0.3
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services95137-42+22.5-24.3-40.2
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services11786+31+14.1+15.5+1.4
Administrative and Support Services150114+36+18.7-0.8+18.3
Public Administration and Safety253167+86+27.4-1.1+59.8
Education and Training207197+10+32.2+16.0-38.4
Health Care and Social Assistance537360+178+58.8+61.4+57.5
Arts and Recreation Services5869-10+11.3-8.3-13.4
Other Services199176+23+28.9+4.4-10.8
Total Industries6,6885,553+1,135+906.7--+227.8

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2023. ©2023. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id (informed decisions). Data are based on a 2020/21 price base for all years. NIEIR-ID data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and annual data releases adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.Learn more

Please refer to specific data notes for more information
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Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of Employment (Total) change between 2016/17 and 2021/22 in Northern Midlands shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in Northern Midlands relative to Tasmania were:

  • Construction (+171 )
  • Retail Trade (+93 )
  • Transport, Postal and Warehousing (+83 )

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Education and Training (-38 )
  • Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services (-40 )
  • Manufacturing (-174 )

Northern Midlands Council

economic profile