Northern Tasmania Region

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Flinders Council

Shift-share analysis

In the Flinders Council, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2013/14 and 2018/19 was experienced in Health Care and Social Assistance.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

Data source

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

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Shift-share analysis to Tasmania
Flinders Council - Employment (Total)2018/192013/142013/14 to 2018/19
IndustryNumbernumberchangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing10498+6+6.3-3.9+3.1
Mining00+0+0.0-0.1+0.5
Manufacturing2220+2+1.3-2.0+2.5
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services518-13+1.2-2.2-11.7
Construction2433-9+2.1+5.8-16.9
Wholesale Trade1513+2+0.9-2.6+3.4
Retail Trade3132-1+2.1+0.6-3.5
Accommodation and Food Services2826+2+1.7-0.4+1.0
Transport, Postal and Warehousing2825+4+1.6-1.4+3.3
Information Media and Telecommunications52+3+0.2-0.4+2.9
Financial and Insurance Services44+0+0.3-0.3+0.2
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services109+1+0.6-0.8+1.7
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services69-2+0.6+0.9-3.7
Administrative and Support Services1412+2+0.8-1.0+2.0
Public Administration and Safety4647-1+3.0-0.6-3.6
Education and Training3127+4+1.8+0.6+1.5
Health Care and Social Assistance5843+15+2.8+2.5+9.3
Arts and Recreation Services115+6+0.4+2.1+3.7
Other Services2520+5+1.3-0.9+4.3
Total Industries475450+25+29.0---3.9

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2019. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts. Data are based on a 2016-17 price base for all years. NIEIR-ID data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and annual data releases adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.Learn more

Please refer to specific data notes for more information
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Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2013/14 and 2018/19 in the Flinders Council in 2018/19 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in the Flinders Council relative to Tasmania were:

  • Health Care and Social Assistance (+9 )
  • Other Services (+4 )
  • Arts and Recreation Services (+4 )

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (-4 )
  • Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services (-12 )
  • Construction (-17 )

Northern Tasmania Region

economic profile