City of Port Adelaide Enfield

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City of Port Adelaide Enfield

COVID-19 JobKeeper estimates

The COVID 19 pandemic and policy responses enacted to limit its spread have generated uncertainty about the future of local economies. This uncertainty has created difficulties in planning economic development responses at a local government level. In response, .id has developed a COVID-19 Economic Forecast Tool that estimates likely quarterly economic and industry impacts out to June 2022.

The COVID-19 JobKeeper estimates shows the quarterly estimates of local jobs and employed resident workers supported by the JobKeeper scheme. Charts in this page show the quarterly number of workers on JobKeeper, proportion of worker on JobKeeper (compared to total workers in the region) for the Local Jobs and Employed Residents of industry, based on the 87 industry subsectors and 19 main industry divisions in the ANZSIC classification.

This page should be viewed in conjunction with the COVID-19 Extended industry forecasts section to see the estimated quarterly impact of COVID-19 at an industry level and COVID-19 Extended forecast section to see the impact on the overall economy. To see the impact of COVID-19 on the resident labour force (those in work or looking for work and aged over 15) who are looking for work, refer to Unemployment and JobSeeker section.

This page is subject to the disclaimer and copyright notices as set out below.

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Local Jobs compensated by JobKeeper

This indicator shows the estimated number of jobs compensated by JobKeeper in the City of Port Adelaide Enfield area by vulnerability and industry. Workers in industries with higher share of working zero hours are more vulnerability once the JobKeeper finishes.

  • number
  • percentage
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Employed Resident Impacts

Another way of looking at the impacts is to analyse the industry impact on local residents, that is employed residents who live in the region but may work elsewhere. This is important in understanding the impacts on council rates and local unemployment.

  • number
  • percentage
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Assumptions and methodology

Version 2.1 (Model updated 7 October 2020. See revision notes below)

NIEIR has estimated the potential impacts of coronavirus on economic activity, employment and sectors at the LGA level. Model outputs above are based on information available before September 24.

The forecast model estimates the impact on final demand on each industry and then calculates the multiplier effects using NIEIR’s regional database. Assumptions are made about the household, business and government supression rates directly flowing from the measures introduced to contain the virus. The impact of economic measures is also incorporated into the modelling. A contingency factor is also assumed to account for downside risks (e.g. productivity impacts from working at home).

For more details, see Methodological Paper: Modelling the impact of COVID-19 at the Australian Local Government Area (LGA) level

Revisions

Notes on LGA projections – September 2020

This note applies to the updated LGA projections issued in September 2020. The initial June quarter 2020 projection prepared in early April 2020 included a 12 per cent decline in national GDP. This has now been revised upward to -7.5%. The main reason for the difference was:

  1. earlier easing of restrictions over June than what was assumed; and
  2. a higher increase in household savings because of an assumed 50 per cent fall in other discretionary household expenditures.

That is, it was assumed that settings close to Stage Four restrictions would apply to the general retail sector even if not made mandatory because high infection levels will produce the same result. It would appear that Australia’s success in controlling initial infection rates saved between 3 and 5 per cent of GDP. This is consistent with international evidence. More information on the update can be found here.

Disclaimer

This report has been prepared for City of Port Adelaide Enfield. .id has taken all due care in the preparation of this report. Content in this Report is based on Data from the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) and the Data remains the property of the NIEIR. While NIEIR endeavours to provide reliable forecasts and believes the material is accurate it will not be liable for any claim by any party acting on such information. .id accepts no liability with respect to the correctness, accuracy, currency, completeness, relevance or otherwise of this Data. Please view our Privacy Policy, Terms of use and Legal notices.

Copyright Notice

This Report and all material contained within it is subject to Australian copyright law. Copyright in all such material [excluding ABS Data & other data or information where ownership by a third party is evident] is owned by .ID Consulting Pty Ltd ACN 084 054 473. Other than in accordance with the Copyright Act 1968 or as specifically agreed between .id and the Client, no material from this Report may, in any form or by any means, be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, without prior written permission from .id. Any enquiries regarding the use of this Report should be directed to info@id.com.au or 03 9417 2205.

City of Port Adelaide Enfield

economic profile