RDA Darling Downs and South West Region

economic profile

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Bulloo Shire

COVID-19 Economic Outlook Tool

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Version 2.1 (Model updated 29 Sept 2020. See revision notes below)

COVID19 will obviously have a substantial negative impact on economic activity in 2020. In response, .id has developed a COVID-19 Outlook Tool to show the economic and industry impacts at the LGA level. This tool draws on the economic forecast model developed by NIEIR and focuses on the impacts to September 2020.

This page is subject to the disclaimer and copyright notices as set out below.

Current area:

Headline estimates - Bulloo ShireImpacts refer to September quarter 2020 compared to September quarter 2019

GRP change


Local job change


Employed resident change


Sector impacts - Top 3 (without the JobKeeper scheme)

  • Accommodation and Food Services (-10 local jobs)
  • Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (-4 local jobs)
  • Mining (-4 local jobs)

Key Insights

  • Gross Regional Product is forecast to grow by 7.6% in the September Quarter 2020. This growth was lower than the state average.
  • Local Jobs are forecast to grow by 1.6% in the September Quarter 2020. This equates to a growth of 5 local jobs.
  • In the absence of JobKeeper payments, the employment growth is estimated at 1.6% (5 jobs)
  • The impact on employed residents (10.3%) was higher than the local job impact.
  • with the JK scheme
  • without the JK scheme
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Industry Impacts

Industry impacts data will be available soon.

Assumptions and methodology

NIEIR has estimated the potential impacts of coronavirus on economic activity, employment and sectors at the LGA level. Model outputs above are based on information available before September 24.

The forecast model estimates the impact on final demand on each industry and then calculates the multiplier effects using NIEIR’s regional database. Assumptions are made about the household, business and government supression rates directly flowing from the measures introduced to contain the virus. The impact of economic measures is also incorporated into the modelling. A contingency factor is also assumed to account for downside risks (e.g. productivity impacts from working at home).

For more details, see Methodological Paper: Modelling the impact of COVID-19 at the Australian Local Government Area (LGA) level


Notes on LGA projections – September 2020

This note applies to the updated LGA projections issued in September 2020. The initial June quarter 2020 projection prepared in early April 2020 included a 12 per cent decline in national GDP. This has now been revised upward to -7.5%. The main reason for the difference was:

  1. earlier easing of restrictions over June than what was assumed; and
  2. a higher increase in household savings because of an assumed 50 per cent fall in other discretionary household expenditures.

That is, it was assumed that settings close to Stage Four restrictions would apply to the general retail sector even if not made mandatory because high infection levels will produce the same result. It would appear that Australia’s success in controlling initial infection rates saved between 3 and 5 per cent of GDP. This is consistent with international evidence. More information on the update can be found here.


This report has been prepared for the Bulloo Shire. .id has taken all due care in the preparation of this report. Content in this Report is based on Data from the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) and the Data remains the property of the NIEIR. While NIEIR endeavours to provide reliable forecasts and believes the material is accurate it will not be liable for any claim by any party acting on such information. .id accepts no liability with respect to the correctness, accuracy, currency, completeness, relevance or otherwise of this Data. Please view our Privacy Policy, Terms of use and Legal notices.

Copyright Notice

This Report and all material contained within it is subject to Australian copyright law. Copyright in all such material [excluding ABS Data & other data or information where ownership by a third party is evident] is owned by .ID Consulting Pty Ltd ACN 084 054 473. Other than in accordance with the Copyright Act 1968 or as specifically agreed between .id and the Client, no material from this Report may, in any form or by any means, be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, without prior written permission from .id. Any enquiries regarding the use of this Report should be directed to info@id.com.au or 03 9417 2205.

RDA Darling Downs and South West Region

economic profile