RDA Darling Downs and South West Region

economic profile

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Bulloo Shire

Shift-share analysis

In the Bulloo Shire, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2014/15 and 2019/20 was experienced in Agriculture.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

Data source

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

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Shift-share analysis to Queensland
Bulloo Shire - Employment (Total)2019/202014/152014/15 to 2019/20
IndustryNumbernumberchangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing11371+43+6.1+8.7+27.7
Mining40147-107+12.7-14.0-105.5
Manufacturing000000
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services000000
Construction1532-17+2.8+1.6-21.3
Wholesale Trade000000
Retail Trade321-18+1.9-1.7-18.7
Accommodation and Food Services1026-16+2.3-0.7-17.4
Transport, Postal and Warehousing020+0.2-0.10
Information Media and Telecommunications000000
Financial and Insurance Services000000
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services000000
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services000000
Administrative and Support Services25-3+0.5-0.4-3.4
Public Administration and Safety6554+11+4.7+2.2+3.7
Education and Training66+0+0.6-0.1-0.4
Health Care and Social Assistance010+0.1+0.10
Arts and Recreation Services000000
Other Services000000
Total Industries259371-112+31.9---143.7

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2021. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id informed decisions. Data are based on a 2018-19 price base for all years. NIEIR-ID data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and annual data releases adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.Learn more

Please refer to specific data notes for more information
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Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2014/15 and 2019/20 in the Bulloo Shire shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in the Bulloo Shire relative to Queensland were:

  • Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (+28 )
  • Public Administration and Safety (+4 )
  • Education and Training (+0 )

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Retail Trade (-19 )
  • Construction (-21 )
  • Mining (-106 )

RDA Darling Downs and South West Region

economic profile