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Shift-share analysis

In Tablelands, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2013/14 and 2018/19 was experienced in Mining.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

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Shift-share analysis to Queensland
Tablelands - Employment (Total)2018/192013/142013/14 to 2018/19
Industry
(Click rows to view sub-categories)
NumberNumberChangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing1,5041,433+72+122.1-11.8-38.5
Mining277272+5+23.2-54.4+36.4
Manufacturing504611-107+52.1-40.0-118.6
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services170157+13+13.4-14.6+14.0
Construction787894-107+76.2-24.1-159.1
Wholesale Trade175234-59+20.0-21.6-57.4
Retail Trade1,2121,272-60+108.4+32.1-200.3
Accommodation and Food Services724683+40+58.3+45.9-63.7
Transport, Postal and Warehousing318376-58+32.1+2.3-92.3
Information Media and Telecommunications8889-1+7.6-7.6-0.4
Financial and Insurance Services117142-24+12.1-6.3-30.0
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services116134-18+11.5-18.4-11.2
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services430429+2+36.6-23.9-10.9
Administrative and Support Services237266-29+22.7-9.4-42.4
Public Administration and Safety473524-51+44.7+45.5-141.6
Education and Training1,0661,061+6+90.4+68.6-153.5
Health Care and Social Assistance1,4281,335+93+113.8+116.4-137.4
Arts and Recreation Services129154-25+13.2+3.2-41.8
Other Services455456-1+38.9-25.4-14.3

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2019. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id , the population experts.

Data are based on a 2016-17 price base for all years. NIEIR-ID data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and annual data releases adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.Learn more

Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2013/14 to 2018/19
Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2013/14 to 2018/19 Net change in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Tablelands relative to Queensland: -38.5 Net change in Mining, Tablelands relative to Queensland: 36.4 Net change in Manufacturing, Tablelands relative to Queensland: -118.6 Net change in Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Tablelands relative to Queensland: 14.0 Net change in Construction, Tablelands relative to Queensland: -159.1 Net change in Wholesale Trade, Tablelands relative to Queensland: -57.4 Net change in Retail Trade, Tablelands relative to Queensland: -200.3 Net change in Accommodation and Food Services, Tablelands relative to Queensland: -63.7 Net change in Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Tablelands relative to Queensland: -92.3 Net change in Information Media and Telecommunications, Tablelands relative to Queensland: -0.4 Net change in Financial and Insurance Services, Tablelands relative to Queensland: -30.0 Net change in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, Tablelands relative to Queensland: -11.2 Net change in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Tablelands relative to Queensland: -10.9 Net change in Administrative and Support Services, Tablelands relative to Queensland: -42.4 Net change in Public Administration and Safety, Tablelands relative to Queensland: -141.6 Net change in Education and Training, Tablelands relative to Queensland: -153.5 Net change in Health Care and Social Assistance, Tablelands relative to Queensland: -137.4 Net change in Arts and Recreation Services, Tablelands relative to Queensland: -41.8 Net change in Other Services, Tablelands relative to Queensland: -14.3
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2019
Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts

Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2013/14 and 2018/19 in Tablelands in 2018/19 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in Tablelands relative to Queensland were:

  • Mining (+36.4)
  • Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services (+14.0)
  • Information Media and Telecommunications (-0.4)

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Retail Trade (-200.3)
  • Construction (-159.1)
  • Education and Training (-153.5)

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