The Hills Shire

Shift-share analysis

In The Hills Shire, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2013/14 and 2018/19 was experienced in Health Care and Social Assistance.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

Data source

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

Current benchmark:
Comparison year:
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Shift-share analysis to Greater Sydney
The Hills Shire - Employment (Total)2018/192013/142013/14 to 2018/19
IndustryNumbernumberchangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing709714-6+117.0-57.6-65.0
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services270279-10+45.8-33.5-21.8
Wholesale Trade4,5453,536+1,009+579.0-358.3+788.2
Retail Trade16,77912,777+4,003+2,091.9+619.9+1,290.8
Accommodation and Food Services4,4414,128+313+676.0+53.9-417.3
Transport, Postal and Warehousing1,599913+687+149.5-13.1+550.4
Information Media and Telecommunications950864+87+141.5-68.8+13.9
Financial and Insurance Services2,5492,421+128+396.5-17.3-251.5
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services1,5171,384+133+226.6-157.9+64.6
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services7,9337,182+751+1,175.9+816.9-1,241.8
Administrative and Support Services2,0721,925+146+315.3-122.6-46.6
Public Administration and Safety1,5691,437+132+235.4+5.9-109.4
Education and Training6,4005,408+993+885.5-12.5+119.6
Health Care and Social Assistance11,9257,829+4,096+1,281.9+87.7+2,726.1
Arts and Recreation Services1,2981,018+280+166.7-31.4+144.4
Other Services3,4613,016+445+493.8-137.6+89.1
Total Industries86,16768,527+17,641+11,219.3--+6,421.4

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2019. Compiled and presented in by .id the population experts. Data are based on a 2016-17 price base for all years. NIEIR-ID data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and annual data releases adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.Learn more

Please refer to specific data notes for more information
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Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2013/14 and 2018/19 in The Hills Shire in 2018/19 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in The Hills Shire relative to Greater Sydney were:

  • Health Care and Social Assistance (+2,726 )
  • Construction (+1,389 )
  • Retail Trade (+1,291 )

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Financial and Insurance Services (-251 )
  • Accommodation and Food Services (-417 )
  • Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (-1,242 )

The Hills Shire Council

economic profile