Willoughby City

COVID-19 Economic Outlook Tool

COVID19 will obviously have a substantial negative impact on economic activity in 2020. In response, .id has developed a COVID-19 Outlook Tool to show the economic and industry impacts at the LGA level. This tool draws on the economic forecast model developed by NIEIR and focuses on the impacts to September 2020.

This tool should be viewed in conjunction with Unemployment and JobSeeker section to understand the impact of COVID-19 on the local labour force. To monitor the impact of COVID-19 on local businesses, see the Business Trends section.

This page is subject to the disclaimer and copyright notices as set out below.

Headline estimates - Willoughby CityImpacts refer to September quarter 2020 compared to September quarter 2019

GRP change

-3.2%

Local job change

-3.0%

Employed resident change

-2.0%

Sector impacts - Top 3 (without the JobKeeper scheme)

  • Accommodation and Food Services (-1,115 local jobs)
  • Retail Trade (-683 local jobs)
  • Information Media and Telecommunications (-471 local jobs)

Key Insights

  • GRP is forecast to be 3.2% lower in the September quarter 2020 than the same quarter in 2019. This fall is less than that experienced by the state as a whole.
  • Local Jobs are forecast to fall by -3.0% in the September Quarter 2020. This equates to a fall of 2,238 local jobs.
  • In the absence of JobKeeper payments, the employment fall is estimated at -3.4% (2,522 jobs)
  • The impact on employed residents (-2.0%) was lower than the local job impact.
  • with JobKeeper
  • without JobKeeper
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Industry Impacts

The impact of COVID-19 will vary from region to region and will depend on the regions supply chain and trade exposure (domestic and international), reliance on tourism and exposure to consumer demand (e.g. accommodation, food services, arts and recreation).

Economic Impact

The chart below presents the output and value added impacts of COVID-19 in the September Quarter 2020. Output refers to the total sales of each industry in the region. Value Added refers to the wages and salaries paid to workers in the region, the gross operating surplus and taxes. Value added impacts show how the different industries impact GRP in the region.

  • Output
  • Value Added
  • Number
  • Percentage
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Local Jobs Impact

This indicator shows the estimated number of jobs in Willoughby City. Local job impacts are typically higher in regions with a relatively high share of service sector and labour-intensive jobs (e.g. tourism and hospitality, entertainment, and business services).

Definition: Local jobs change – change in Local jobs as defined by the ABS; (2) Local jobs change without JobKeeper – change in Local jobs in the absence of JobKeeper payments; and (3) Local jobs compensated by JobKeeper – Local jobs counted as employed who would have been unemployed without JobKeeper.


  • Local jobs
  • Local jobs compensated by JobKeeper
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Employed Resident Impacts

Another way of looking at the impacts is to analyse the industry impact on local residents, that is employed residents who live in the region but may work elsewhere. This is important in understanding the impacts on council rates and local unemployment.

Definition: Employed residents change – change in Employed residents as defined by the ABS; (2) Employed residents change without JobKeeper – change in Employed residents in the absence of JobKeeper payments; and (3) Employed residents compensated by JobKeeper – Employed residents counted as employed who would have been unemployed without JobKeeper.


  • Employed residents
  • Employed residents compensated by JobKeeper
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Assumptions and methodology

Version 2.1 (Model updated 7 October 2020. See revision notes below)

NIEIR has estimated the potential impacts of coronavirus on economic activity, employment and sectors at the LGA level. Model outputs above are based on information available before September 24.

The forecast model estimates the impact on final demand on each industry and then calculates the multiplier effects using NIEIR’s regional database. Assumptions are made about the household, business and government supression rates directly flowing from the measures introduced to contain the virus. The impact of economic measures is also incorporated into the modelling. A contingency factor is also assumed to account for downside risks (e.g. productivity impacts from working at home).

For more details, see Methodological Paper: Modelling the impact of COVID-19 at the Australian Local Government Area (LGA) level

Revisions

Notes on LGA projections – September 2020

This note applies to the updated LGA projections issued in September 2020. The initial June quarter 2020 projection prepared in early April 2020 included a 12 per cent decline in national GDP. This has now been revised upward to -7.5%. The main reason for the difference was:

  1. earlier easing of restrictions over June than what was assumed; and
  2. a higher increase in household savings because of an assumed 50 per cent fall in other discretionary household expenditures.

That is, it was assumed that settings close to Stage Four restrictions would apply to the general retail sector even if not made mandatory because high infection levels will produce the same result. It would appear that Australia’s success in controlling initial infection rates saved between 3 and 5 per cent of GDP. This is consistent with international evidence. More information on the update can be found here.

Disclaimer

This report has been prepared for Willoughby City. .id has taken all due care in the preparation of this report. Content in this Report is based on Data from the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) and the Data remains the property of the NIEIR. While NIEIR endeavours to provide reliable forecasts and believes the material is accurate it will not be liable for any claim by any party acting on such information. .id accepts no liability with respect to the correctness, accuracy, currency, completeness, relevance or otherwise of this Data. Please view our Privacy Policy, Terms of use and Legal notices.

Copyright Notice

This Report and all material contained within it is subject to Australian copyright law. Copyright in all such material [excluding ABS Data & other data or information where ownership by a third party is evident] is owned by .ID Consulting Pty Ltd ACN 084 054 473. Other than in accordance with the Copyright Act 1968 or as specifically agreed between .id and the Client, no material from this Report may, in any form or by any means, be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, without prior written permission from .id. Any enquiries regarding the use of this Report should be directed to info@id.com.au or 03 9417 2205.

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