Dungog Shire Council

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Dungog Shire

Shift-share analysis

In Dungog Shire, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2016/17 and 2021/22 was experienced in Construction.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

Data source

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

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Shift-share analysis to New South Wales
Dungog Shire - Employment (Total)2021/222016/172016/17 to 2021/22
IndustryNumbernumberchangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing442495-53+33.8-34.3-52.9
Mining167+9+0.5-0.3+8.9
Manufacturing5863-5+4.4-7.7-2.0
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services3226+6+1.8+3.1+1.4
Construction363256+107+17.5-2.4+91.8
Wholesale Trade2740-13+2.8-5.0-10.8
Retail Trade254210+44+14.3-6.1+35.5
Accommodation and Food Services157167-10+11.4-21.2-0.7
Transport, Postal and Warehousing90105-15+7.2-3.1-19.2
Information Media and Telecommunications020+0.2-0.30
Financial and Insurance Services3228+4+2.0+4.4-2.1
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services2433-9+2.3+1.2-12.6
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services136151-15+10.3+13.3-38.4
Administrative and Support Services84100-16+6.9-7.5-15.5
Public Administration and Safety127104+23+7.1+7.6+8.6
Education and Training337297+40+20.3+3.3+16.1
Health Care and Social Assistance281187+95+12.8+16.3+65.4
Arts and Recreation Services3065-35+4.5-4.6-35.4
Other Services135104+31+7.1+3.7+19.7
Total Industries2,6332,450+183+167.2--+15.8

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2023. ©2023. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id (informed decisions). Data are based on a 2020/21 price base for all years. NIEIR-ID data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and annual data releases adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.Learn more

Please refer to specific data notes for more information
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Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of Employment (Total) change between 2016/17 and 2021/22 in Dungog Shire shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in Dungog Shire relative to New South Wales were:

  • Construction (+92 )
  • Health Care and Social Assistance (+65 )
  • Retail Trade (+36 )

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Arts and Recreation Services (-35 )
  • Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (-38 )
  • Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (-53 )

Dungog Shire Council

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