South East Queensland

Shift-share analysis

In the South East Queensland, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2016/17 and 2021/22 was experienced in Education and Training.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

Data source

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

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Shift-share analysis to Queensland
South East Queensland - Employment (Total)2021/222016/172016/17 to 2021/22
IndustryNumbernumberchangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing23,12521,446+1,679+2,964.4-1,666.0+380.9
Mining20,95717,278+3,679+2,388.3+1,107.1+183.6
Manufacturing136,982122,333+14,649+16,909.6-3,408.8+1,148.6
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services22,85818,307+4,551+2,530.6+1,441.6+578.6
Construction190,341178,853+11,488+24,722.1-9,974.7-3,259.5
Wholesale Trade55,46649,910+5,556+6,898.9-1,775.3+432.2
Retail Trade186,652173,439+13,213+23,973.8-13,364.0+2,603.3
Accommodation and Food Services139,585124,015+15,571+17,142.1-3,881.5+2,309.9
Transport, Postal and Warehousing110,41895,268+15,150+13,168.6-2,372.1+4,353.5
Information Media and Telecommunications25,34929,749-4,400+4,112.1-8,313.8-198.3
Financial and Insurance Services64,64453,839+10,805+7,442.1+1,629.8+1,732.8
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services42,91638,436+4,480+5,312.9-1,710.9+878.2
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services174,562135,236+39,326+18,693.2+17,193.8+3,438.8
Administrative and Support Services67,12662,677+4,448+8,663.7-4,042.8-172.5
Public Administration and Safety129,801113,687+16,114+15,714.6-1,916.7+2,316.4
Education and Training187,827161,993+25,835+22,391.6-2,624.2+6,067.2
Health Care and Social Assistance320,051243,828+76,224+33,703.3+39,572.8+2,947.4
Arts and Recreation Services33,65133,588+62+4,642.9-4,995.4+414.9
Other Services82,99872,485+10,513+10,019.4+266.4+226.9
Total Industries2,015,3191,746,376+268,943+241,394.2--+27,548.5

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2023. ©2023. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id (informed decisions). Data are based on a 2020/21 price base for all years. NIEIR-ID data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and annual data releases adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.Learn more

Please refer to specific data notes for more information
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Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of Employment (Total) change between 2016/17 and 2021/22 in the South East Queensland shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in the South East Queensland relative to Queensland were:

  • Education and Training (+6,067 )
  • Transport, Postal and Warehousing (+4,353 )
  • Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (+3,439 )

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Administrative and Support Services (-172 )
  • Information Media and Telecommunications (-198 )
  • Construction (-3,259 )

South East Queensland

economic profile