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Northern Midlands Council area

Shift-share analysis

In Northern Midlands Council area, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2013/14 and 2018/19 was experienced in Construction.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

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Shift-share analysis to Regional TAS
Northern Midlands Council area - Employment (Total)2018/192013/142013/14 to 2018/19
Industry
(Click rows to view sub-categories)
NumberNumberChangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing939896+43+16.7+1.6+24.7
Mining2336-13+0.7-8.4-5.6
Manufacturing987897+90+16.7-58.9+132.1
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services5164-13+1.2-7.0-7.4
Construction618328+290+6.1+29.8+254.5
Wholesale Trade431428+3+8.0-44.2+39.6
Retail Trade414374+40+7.0+3.1+30.1
Accommodation and Food Services264275-11+5.1-0.3-15.8
Transport, Postal and Warehousing487502-15+9.3-36.3+12.0
Information Media and Telecommunications3526+9+0.5-2.6+11.0
Financial and Insurance Services1723-6+0.4-2.6-3.4
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services140136+5+2.5-9.5+11.7
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services6675-9+1.4+5.4-15.5
Administrative and Support Services9897--+1.8-7.3+5.6
Public Administration and Safety178214-37+4.0-9.8-30.7
Education and Training220203+17+3.8+2.0+10.9
Health Care and Social Assistance350341+10+6.3+44.1-41.0
Arts and Recreation Services6052+8+1.0+15.5-8.5
Other Services182165+17+3.1-2.1+15.7

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2019. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id , the population experts.

Data are based on a 2016-17 price base for all years. NIEIR-ID data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and annual data releases adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.Learn more

Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2013/14 to 2018/19
Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2013/14 to 2018/19 Net change in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: 24.7 Net change in Mining, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: -5.6 Net change in Manufacturing, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: 132.1 Net change in Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: -7.4 Net change in Construction, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: 254.5 Net change in Wholesale Trade, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: 39.6 Net change in Retail Trade, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: 30.1 Net change in Accommodation and Food Services, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: -15.8 Net change in Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: 12.0 Net change in Information Media and Telecommunications, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: 11.0 Net change in Financial and Insurance Services, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: -3.4 Net change in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: 11.7 Net change in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: -15.5 Net change in Administrative and Support Services, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: 5.6 Net change in Public Administration and Safety, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: -30.7 Net change in Education and Training, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: 10.9 Net change in Health Care and Social Assistance, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: -41.0 Net change in Arts and Recreation Services, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: -8.5 Net change in Other Services, Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS: 15.7
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2019
Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts

Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2013/14 and 2018/19 in Northern Midlands Council area in 2018/19 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in Northern Midlands Council area relative to Regional TAS were:

  • Construction (+254.5)
  • Manufacturing (+132.1)
  • Wholesale Trade (+39.6)

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Health Care and Social Assistance (-41.0)
  • Public Administration and Safety (-30.7)
  • Accommodation and Food Services (-15.8)

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