The Hills Shire CouncilEconomic profile
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The Hills Shire

Shift-share analysis

In The Hills Shire, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2011/12 and 2016/17 was experienced in Retail Trade.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

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Shift-share analysis to New South Wales
The Hills Shire - Employment (Total)2016/172011/122011/12 to 2016/17
Industry
(Click rows to view sub-categories)
NumberNumberChangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing162135+27+11.3-8.0+23.9
Mining811-3+0.9-0.6-3.3
Manufacturing6,0358,113-2,078+676.2-1,626.8-1,127.1
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services533503+30+41.9-52.7+40.6
Construction8,2617,430+831+619.3+239.5-28.1
Wholesale Trade3,2525,170-1,917+430.9-1,126.3-1,222.0
Retail Trade8,9747,463+1,512+622.0-128.1+1,017.6
Accommodation and Food Services6,8555,374+1,481+447.9+289.3+743.8
Transport, Postal and Warehousing29,33229,710-379+2,476.2-1,518.3-1,336.4
Information Media and Telecommunications902837+65+69.8-41.6+36.4
Financial and Insurance Services1,057933+124+77.8-4.7+51.3
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services1,9291,780+150+148.4+94.1-92.7
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services4,0013,378+622+281.6+241.3+99.4
Administrative and Support Services4,3153,678+638+306.6+215.3+115.6
Public Administration and Safety4,2464,609-364+384.2-125.8-622.0
Education and Training3,1272,692+434+224.4+268.0-58.1
Health Care and Social Assistance5,0734,190+883+349.3+607.3-74.0
Arts and Recreation Services675600+75+50.0+30.9-6.0
Other Services2,6092,637-28+219.8-127.1-120.9

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id , the population experts.

Data are based on a 2015-16 price base for all years. NIEIR-ID data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and annual data releases adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.Learn more

Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2011/12 to 2016/17
Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2011/12 to 2016/17 Net change in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: 23.9 Net change in Mining, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: -3.3 Net change in Manufacturing, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: -1,127.1 Net change in Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: 40.6 Net change in Construction, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: -28.1 Net change in Wholesale Trade, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: -1,222.0 Net change in Retail Trade, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: 1,017.6 Net change in Accommodation and Food Services, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: 743.8 Net change in Transport, Postal and Warehousing, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: -1,336.4 Net change in Information Media and Telecommunications, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: 36.4 Net change in Financial and Insurance Services, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: 51.3 Net change in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: -92.7 Net change in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: 99.4 Net change in Administrative and Support Services, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: 115.6 Net change in Public Administration and Safety, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: -622.0 Net change in Education and Training, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: -58.1 Net change in Health Care and Social Assistance, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: -74.0 Net change in Arts and Recreation Services, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: -6.0 Net change in Other Services, The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales: -120.9
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016
Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts

Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2011/12 and 2016/17 in The Hills Shire in 2016/17 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in The Hills Shire relative to New South Wales were:

  • Retail Trade (+1,017.6)
  • Accommodation and Food Services (+743.8)
  • Administrative and Support Services (+115.6)

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Transport, Postal and Warehousing (-1,336.4)
  • Wholesale Trade (-1,222.0)
  • Manufacturing (-1,127.1)

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