Gunnedah Shire CouncilEconomic profile
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Gunnedah Shire

Shift-share analysis

This page has been updated with 2016-17 NIEIR-ID economic model data

You may notice some changes to current and past data. Learn more about these changes.

In Gunnedah Shire, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2011/12 and 2016/17 was experienced in Health Care and Social Assistance.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

Did you know? By clicking/tapping on a data row in the table you will be able to see sub categories.
Shift-share analysis to New South Wales
Gunnedah Shire - Employment (Total)2016/172011/122011/12 to 2016/17
Industry
(Click rows to view sub-categories)
NumberNumberChangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing820917-98+76.5-54.0-120.1
Mining225511-286+42.6-27.0-301.3
Manufacturing387389-2+32.4-78.0+43.5
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services12354+69+4.6-5.7+69.9
Construction253314-61+26.2+10.1-97.5
Wholesale Trade196207-10+17.3-45.1+17.4
Retail Trade464515-52+43.0-8.9-85.9
Accommodation and Food Services411356+55+29.7+19.2+5.8
Transport, Postal and Warehousing296270+26+22.5-13.8+17.1
Information Media and Telecommunications4142-1+3.5-2.1-2.1
Financial and Insurance Services6574-9+6.2-0.4-15.0
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services6777-9+6.4+4.1-19.9
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services202187+15+15.6+13.4-14.2
Administrative and Support Services134136-1+11.3+8.0-20.6
Public Administration and Safety334273+61+22.8-7.5+45.7
Education and Training434408+26+34.0+40.7-49.0
Health Care and Social Assistance564457+107+38.1+66.3+2.9
Arts and Recreation Services6656+9+4.7+2.9+1.7
Other Services331237+94+19.8-11.4+85.9

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id , the population experts.

Data are based on a 2015-16 price base for all years. NIEIR-ID data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and annual data releases adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.Learn more

Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2011/12 to 2016/17
Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2011/12 to 2016/17 Net change in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -120.1 Net change in Mining, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -301.3 Net change in Manufacturing, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 43.5 Net change in Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 69.9 Net change in Construction, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -97.5 Net change in Wholesale Trade, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 17.4 Net change in Retail Trade, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -85.9 Net change in Accommodation and Food Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 5.8 Net change in Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 17.1 Net change in Information Media and Telecommunications, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -2.1 Net change in Financial and Insurance Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -15.0 Net change in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -19.9 Net change in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -14.2 Net change in Administrative and Support Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -20.6 Net change in Public Administration and Safety, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 45.7 Net change in Education and Training, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: -49.0 Net change in Health Care and Social Assistance, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 2.9 Net change in Arts and Recreation Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 1.7 Net change in Other Services, Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales: 85.9
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016
Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts

Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2011/12 and 2016/17 in Gunnedah Shire in 2016/17 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in Gunnedah Shire relative to New South Wales were:

  • Other Services (+85.9)
  • Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services (+69.9)
  • Public Administration and Safety (+45.7)

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Mining (-301.3)
  • Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (-120.1)
  • Construction (-97.5)

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