Bellingen ShireEconomic profile
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Bellingen Shire

Shift-share analysis

In Bellingen Shire, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2013/14 and 2018/19 was experienced in Manufacturing.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

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Shift-share analysis to New South Wales
Bellingen Shire - Employment (Total)2018/192013/142013/14 to 2018/19
Industry
(Click rows to view sub-categories)
NumberNumberChangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing346398-52+53.6-35.9-69.3
Mining318+22+1.2-1.2+22.1
Manufacturing425369+57+49.7-47.3+54.4
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services1825-7+3.4-3.4-6.9
Construction444374+70+50.5+53.8-34.4
Wholesale Trade5390-36+12.1-9.3-39.2
Retail Trade375421-46+56.8+11.1-113.9
Accommodation and Food Services420455-35+61.3-5.3-91.2
Transport, Postal and Warehousing119138-19+18.7-2.9-34.2
Information Media and Telecommunications3234-2+4.7-2.6-4.3
Financial and Insurance Services3841-3+5.6+0.1-8.8
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services5161-10+8.3-7.7-10.5
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services193195-1+26.3+21.7-49.4
Administrative and Support Services130145-15+19.6-9.3-25.2
Public Administration and Safety217194+23+26.2+1.5-5.0
Education and Training452397+54+53.6+1.1-0.7
Health Care and Social Assistance615524+90+70.7+15.0+4.7
Arts and Recreation Services3964-25+8.7-1.7-31.6
Other Services190158+33+21.3-3.1+14.3

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2019. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id , the population experts.

Data are based on a 2016-17 price base for all years. NIEIR-ID data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and annual data releases adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.Learn more

Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2013/14 to 2018/19
Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2013/14 to 2018/19 Net change in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: -69.3 Net change in Mining, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: 22.1 Net change in Manufacturing, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: 54.4 Net change in Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: -6.9 Net change in Construction, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: -34.4 Net change in Wholesale Trade, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: -39.2 Net change in Retail Trade, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: -113.9 Net change in Accommodation and Food Services, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: -91.2 Net change in Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: -34.2 Net change in Information Media and Telecommunications, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: -4.3 Net change in Financial and Insurance Services, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: -8.8 Net change in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: -10.5 Net change in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: -49.4 Net change in Administrative and Support Services, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: -25.2 Net change in Public Administration and Safety, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: -5.0 Net change in Education and Training, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: -0.7 Net change in Health Care and Social Assistance, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: 4.7 Net change in Arts and Recreation Services, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: -31.6 Net change in Other Services, Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales: 14.3
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2019
Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts

Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2013/14 and 2018/19 in Bellingen Shire in 2018/19 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in Bellingen Shire relative to New South Wales were:

  • Manufacturing (+54.4)
  • Mining (+22.1)
  • Other Services (+14.3)

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Retail Trade (-113.9)
  • Accommodation and Food Services (-91.2)
  • Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (-69.3)

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