Northern Tasmania RegionEconomic profile
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Northern Tasmania Region

Shift-share analysis

In Northern Tasmania Region, the strongest regional competitive effect between 2011/12 and 2016/17 was experienced in Health Care and Social Assistance.

Shift Share Analysis provides a useful mechanism for better interpreting changes in economic variables between different time periods. It is a way of breaking the growth or decline in an industry into three components to help understand what is driving the change. These three change components are commonly known as:

National/State growth effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the overall growth of a larger area that encompasses the region's economy, usually state or national.

Industry mix effect - the amount of growth or decline in an industry that could be attributed to the performance of the specific industry at the national/state level.

Regional competitive effect - the amount of growth or decline in a specific industry that could be attributed to a local advantage or disadvantage. This is generally the most interesting component as it clearly quantifies the level of advantage or disadvantage an industry has in the local area.

The regional competitive effect for an industry generally indicates how the local industry performed against benchmark trends. An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. For example, if Retail Trade in a region grew by 3% but at a state/national level it only grew by 2%, some regional specific factors (e.g. new shopping centre, population growth) must have contributed to this above trend growth. A negative effect suggests the opposite.

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect may still have experienced decline, but by less than the state/national trends.

National Economics (NIEIR) - Modelled series

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Shift-share analysis to Tasmania
Northern Tasmania Region - Employment (Total)2016/172011/122011/12 to 2016/17
Industry
(Click rows to view sub-categories)
NumberNumberChangeBenchmark growth effectIndustry mix effectRegional competitive effect
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing4,2153,700+514+57.3+467.3-10.4
Mining472679-207+10.5-108.1-109.4
Manufacturing5,3916,802-1,412+105.4-1,062.5-454.5
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services1,1171,034+82+16.0-18.4+84.8
Construction5,1485,143+4+79.7+35.5-110.9
Wholesale Trade2,0722,681-609+41.5-723.9+73.2
Retail Trade7,8797,346+534+113.8+164.1+255.7
Accommodation and Food Services4,9674,779+187+74.0+400.6-287.3
Transport, Postal and Warehousing2,7313,139-408+48.6-159.7-296.9
Information Media and Telecommunications8431,002-159+15.5-141.2-33.5
Financial and Insurance Services1,4831,867-384+28.9-255.8-157.3
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services892940-48+14.6-72.2+9.5
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services2,6452,514+131+38.9-29.7+121.7
Administrative and Support Services1,7751,792-17+27.8+185.6-230.6
Public Administration and Safety3,3304,077-747+63.2-452.4-357.2
Education and Training6,0716,012+59+93.1+329.3-363.5
Health Care and Social Assistance10,0147,925+2,090+122.8+1,440.9+525.9
Arts and Recreation Services1,1961,069+127+16.6+42.3+68.4
Other Services2,4822,560-78+39.7+20.5-137.8

Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016. Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id , the population experts.

Data are based on a 2015-16 price base for all years. NIEIR-ID data are inflation adjusted each year to allow direct comparison, and annual data releases adjust previous years’ figures to a new base year.Learn more

Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2011/12 to 2016/17
Regional competitive effect by industry sector 2011/12 to 2016/17 Net change in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: -10.4 Net change in Mining, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: -109.4 Net change in Manufacturing, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: -454.5 Net change in Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: 84.8 Net change in Construction, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: -110.9 Net change in Wholesale Trade, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: 73.2 Net change in Retail Trade, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: 255.7 Net change in Accommodation and Food Services, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: -287.3 Net change in Transport, Postal and Warehousing, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: -296.9 Net change in Information Media and Telecommunications, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: -33.5 Net change in Financial and Insurance Services, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: -157.3 Net change in Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: 9.5 Net change in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: 121.7 Net change in Administrative and Support Services, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: -230.6 Net change in Public Administration and Safety, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: -357.2 Net change in Education and Training, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: -363.5 Net change in Health Care and Social Assistance, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: 525.9 Net change in Arts and Recreation Services, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: 68.4 Net change in Other Services, Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania: -137.8
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ©2016
Compiled and presented in economy.id by .id the population experts

Dominant groups

An industry with a positive regional competitive effect suggests local characteristics supported above trend growth in that period. A negative effect suggests local characteristics inhibited growth in that period.

An analysis of employment (Total) change between 2011/12 and 2016/17 in Northern Tasmania Region in 2016/17 shows the three industries with the highest regional competitive effect in Northern Tasmania Region relative to Tasmania were:

  • Health Care and Social Assistance (+525.9)
  • Retail Trade (+255.7)
  • Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (+121.7)

The three industries with the lowest regional competitive effect were:

  • Manufacturing (-454.5)
  • Education and Training (-363.5)
  • Public Administration and Safety (-357.2)

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